Publications 2021

Behavioural Macroeconomics and Complexity program

Henckel T, Menzies GD, Moffatt PG and Zizzo DJ (2021) ‘Belief adjustment: A double hurdle model and experimental evidence’, Experimental Economics, forthcoming (CAMA WP 1/ 2018).
• Lye JN, and McDonald IM (2021) ‘Can loss aversion shed light on the deflation puzzle?’, Review of Keynesian Economics, 9, 1, 11-42.
Proaño CR and Lojak B (2021) ‘Monetary policy with a state-dependent inflation target in a behavioral two-country monetary union model’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, doi: 10.1016/j.jedc.2021.104236 (CAMA WP 89/2020).

Climate Change and Energy program

• Agarwala M, Burke M, Klusak P, Mohaddes K, Volz U, and Zenghelis D (2021) ‘Climate change and fiscal sustainability: Risks and opportunities’. National Institute Economic Review 258, pp. 28–46 (CAMA WP 80/2021).
Burke PJ and Zhang T (2021) ‘Fuel prices and road deaths: motorcyclists are different’, Accident Analysis and Prevention 162, 106396.
Eskander S, Fankhauser S, and Setzer J (2021) ‘Global lessons from climate change legislation and litigation’. Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy, 2(1), 44-82.
Eskander SM and Nitschke J (2021) ‘Energy use and CO2 emissions in the UK universities: an extended Kaya identity analysis’. Journal of Cleaner Production, 309, 127199.
• Kahn ME, Mohaddes K, Ng RNC, Pesaran H, Raissi M and Yang J-C (2021) ‘Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis’. Energy Economics 104, pp. 105624/1–13.

Commodities and the Macroeconomy program

• Aastveit KA, Bjørnland HC and Cross J (2021) ‘Inflation expectations and the pass-through of oil prices’, Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming (CAMA WP 64/2020).
• Bardhan R, Coelho ACV, Darby S, Debnath R, Isa A, Mohaddes K, Sunikka-Blank M (2021) ‘Words Against Injustices: A Deep Narrative Analysis of Energy Cultures in Poverty of Abuja, Mumbai and Rio de Janeiro’, Energy Research & Social Science 72, pp. 101892/1–17.
Cross JL, Hou C, Nguyen BH (2021) ‘On the China factor in the world oil market: A regime switching approach’, Energy Economics, 2021, 105119, ISSN 0140-9883.
• Gao S, Hou C, Nguyen BH (2021) ‘Forecasting natural gas prices using highly flexible time-varying parameter models’, Economic Modelling, 105652, ISSN 0264-9993, doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105652.
• Kumar Majumder M, Raghavan M and Vespignani J (2021) ‘Impact of commodity price volatility on external debt: The role of exchange rate regimes’, Applied Economics, forthcoming.
Nguyen BH, Okimoto T, Tran TD (2021) ‘Uncertainty-dependent and sign-dependent effects of oil market shocks’, Journal of Commodity Markets, 100207, ISSN 2405-8513,
• Mattos LB and Souza RS (2021) ‘Oil price shocks, exchange rate and uncertainty: case of Latin American economies’, Applied Economics Letters, DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2021.1896670

COVID-19 and the Macroeconomy program

• Chudik A, Mohaddes K, Raissi M (2021) ‘Covid-19 fiscal support and its effectiveness’, Economics Letters, Volume 205, 2021, 109939, ISSN 0165-1765,
• Chudik A, Mohaddes K, Pesaran H, Raissi M and Rebecca A (2021) ‘A counterfactual economic analysis of Covid-19 using a threshold augmented multi-country model’, Journal of International Money and Finance 119, pp. 102477/1–26,
Graham J and Ozbilgin M (2021) ‘Age, industry, and unemployment risk during a pandemic lockdown’,Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 133, 2021, 104233, ISSN 0165-1889,
Koh WC (2021) ‘Differential impact of COVID-19 in Australia: evidence from Google search data’. Journal of Business and Economic Analysis 4 (1): 5-21.
Kollmann R (2021) ‘Effects of Covid-19 on Euro Area GDP and Inflation: Demand vs. Supply Disturbances’, International Economics and Economic Policy, forthcoming.
• Larson WD and Sinclair T (2021) ‘Nowcasting unemployment insurance claims in the time of COVID-19’, International Journal of Forecasting, forthcoming (CAMA W/P 63/2020).

Finance and the Macroeconomy program

• Abbate A, Eickmeier S, Prieto E (2021) ‘Financial shocks and inflation dynamics’, Macroeconomic Dynamics, forthcoming.
• Adnan W, Arin KP, Eruygur A and Spagnolo N (2021) ‘On the heterogeneous effects of tax policy on labor market outcomes’, Southern Economic Journal, forthcoming.
• Adnan W, Arin KP, Charness G, Lacomba J and Lagos F (2021) ‘Which social categories matter to people: An experiment’, Journal of Economic Behaviour and Organization, forthcoming.
• Akoz KK, Arin KP, and Zener C (2021) ‘On the labor market effects of the salience of ethnic/racial disputes’, Journal of Public Economic Theory, forthcoming.
• Argan M, Servil G, Yalaman A, and Manahov V (2021) ‘Stock market investment and different behavioural patterns: an exploratory study, Review of Behavioral Finance, DOI 10.1108/RBF-04-2020-0077.
Arin KP, Minniti M, Murtinu S and Spagnolo N (2021) ‘Inflection points, kinks, and jumps: A statistical approach to detecting nonlinearities’, Organizational Research Methods, forthcoming.
• Bhiromsawat P, Chatjuthamard P, Srivannaboon S and Treepongkaruna S (2021), ‘Jumps and Cojumps Analyses of Major and Minor Cryptocurrencies’, Plos One, forthcoming.
Bjørnland HC, Nordvik FM and Rohre M, ‘Supply flexibility in the shale patch: Evidence from North Dakota’, Journal of Applied Econometrics, forthcoming (CAMA WP 56/2019).
• Bohl M, Putz A, Siklos P and Sulewski C (2021) ‘Information transmission under increasing political tension – Evidence for the Berlin produce exchange 1890-1896’, Journal of Futures Market 41 (February): 226-244.
• Böck M, Feldkircher M and Siklos P (2021) ‘International effects of Euro area forward guidance’, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming.
• Candelon B, Joets M and Ferrara L (2021) ‘Global financial connectedness: A non-linear assessment of the uncertainty channel’, Applied Economics, forthcoming.
Chang Y, Maih J and Tan F (2021) ‘Origins of monetary policy shifts: A New approach to regime switching in DSGE models’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 133, December 2021, 104235.
• Chatjuthamard P, Jiraporn N, Jiraporn P, Treepongkaruna S (2021) ‘Does firm-level political risk influence corporate social responsibility (CSR)? Evidence from earnings conference calls’, The Financial Review, forthcoming.
• Chawla A and Gajurel D (2021) ‘The oil price crisis and contagion effects on the Canadian economy’, Applied Economics.
Chowdhury B and Gajurel D (2021) ‘Realized volatility, jump and beta: Evidence from Canadian stock market’, Applied Economics, DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2021.1940082.
• Clare A, Seaton P, Smith P and Thomas S (2021) ‘Perfect withdrawal in a noisy world: Investing lessons with and without annuities while in drawdown between 2000 and 2019’, Journal of Retirement, forthcoming.
• Cocoorese P and Shaffer S (2021) ‘Cooperative banks and local economic growth’, Regional Studies, Vol. 55 (2), 2021, pages 307-321 (CAMA WP 11 /2018).
• Cocoorese P, Girardone C and Shaffer S (2021) ‘What affects bank market power in the euro area? A country-level structural model approach’, Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 117, 2021, 102443, ISSN 0261-5606, (CAMA WP 15 /2021).
• Delle Chiaie S, Ferrara L and Giannone D (2021) ‘Common factors of commodity prices’, Journal of Applied Econometrics, forthcoming.
• Du Plessis S Reid M and Siklos P (2021) ‘What drives household inflation expectations in South Africa? Demographics and anchoring under inflation targeting’, Economic Systems 45 (June).
• Flamini A, Jahanshahi B and Mohaddes K (2021) ‘Illegal drugs and public corruption: Crack based evidence from California’, European Journal of Political Economy 69, pp. 102005/1–14,
Ferrara L, Metelli L, Natoli F and Siena D (2021) ‘Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation’, Journal of International Economics, forthcoming.
Ferrara L, Mogliani M and Sahuc J-G (2021) ‘Monitoring high-frequency Growth-at-Risk’, International Journal of Forecasting, forthcoming.
Fry-McKibbin R and Souza RS(2021), ‘Global liquidity and commodity market interactions: Macroeconomic effects on a commodity exporting emerging market’, International Review of Economics and Finance, in press.
Fry-McKibbin R, Hsiao Y-LC and Martin VL (2021), ‘Measuring financial interdependence in asset markets with an application to Euro zone equities’, Journal of Banking and Finance, 122, 105985.
• Gomis-Porqueras P, Shi S, and Tan D (2021) ‘Gold as a financial instrument’, Journal of Commodity Markets, doi: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2021.100218.
• Hajargasht G, Nguyen J, Valadkhani A (2021) ‘The choice between renewables and non-renewables: Evidence from electricity generation in 29 countries’, Energy Journal, 42(6).
• Harada K and Okimoto T (2021) ‘The BOJ’s ETF purchases and its effects on Nikkei 225 stocks’, International Review of Financial Analysis 77, 101826.
• Ho G, Padungsaksawasdi C, Treepongkaruna S, and Wee M (2021), ‘The effect of short selling on volatility and jumps’, Australian Journal of Management, forthcoming.
• Hurn S, Shi S, and Wang B (2021) ‘Housing networks and driving forces’, Journal of Banking and Finance, forthcoming.
• Ijtsma P, Shaffer S and Spierdijk L (2021), ‘US banking deregulation and local economic growth: A spatial analysis’, Spatial Statistics 43 (2021) 100506 (CAMA WP 33/2021).
• Inoue T and Okimoto T (2021) ‘International spillover effects of unconventional monetary policies of major central banks’. Empirical Economics.
• Inoue T and Okimoto T (2021) ‘How does unconventional monetary policy affect the global financial markets?’. International Review of Financial Analysis 79, 101968.
• Kang W, Perez de Gracia F and Ratti RA (2021) ‘Do gasoline prices respond to non-US and US oil supply shocks?’, Applied Economics, DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2021.1946473.
• Kang W, Ratti R and Vespignani J (2021) ‘Financial and nonfinancial global stock market volatility shocks’, Economic Modelling, Volume 96, March 2021, Pages 128-134.
• Kang W, Perez de Gracia F, Ratti RA (2021) ‘Economic uncertainty, oil prices and US stock returns of the airline industry’, North American Journal of Economics and Finance 57, forthcoming.
• Khine K, Treepongkaruna S and Jiraporn P (2021) ‘Stakeholder engagement and firms’ innovation: Evidence from LGBT-supportive policies’, Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, forthcoming.
Koh WC and Yu S (2021) ‘A decade after the 2009 global recession: macroeconomic developments’. Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy 12 (2): 2150011.
• Korphaibool V, Chatjuthamard P and Treepongkaruna S (2021) ‘Scoring sufficiency economy philosophy through GRI standards and firm risk: A case study of Thai listed companies’, Sustainability 13, 2321.
• Laurent S and Shi S (2021) ‘Unit root test with high-frequency data, Econometric Theory.
• Laureys L, Meeks R, Wanengkirtyo B (2021) ‘Optimal simple objectives for monetary policy when banks matter’, European Economic Review, Volume 135, June 2021, 103719.
• Manahov V and Yalaman A (2021) ‘Analysing emerging market returns with high-frequency data during the global financial crisis of 2007–2009’, The European Journal of Finance, DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2021.1957698.
Milunovich G (2021) ‘Assessing the connectedness between Proof of Work and Proof of Stake/Other digital coins’. Economics Letters, 110243.
• Morita H and Okimoto T (2021) ‘The interest rate determination when economic variables are partially observable’, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institution, and Money, forthcoming.
• Nguyen A, Nguyen J, Valadkhani A, Wake A (2021) ‘Press freedom and the global economy: The cost of slipping backwards’, Journalism Studies.
Okimoto T and Takaoka S (2021) ‘The credit spread curve distribution and economic fluctuations in Japan’. Journal of International Money and Finance 122, 102582.
• Padungsaksawadi C and Treepongkaruna S (2021) ‘Chasing for information during the COVID-19 Panic: The role of Google Search on global stock market’, Cogent Economics and Finance, forthcoming.
• Phillips PCB and Shi S (2021) ‘Diagnosing housing fever with an econometric thermometer’, Journal of Economic Surveys, forthcoming.
Siklos P (2021) ‘Real and financial factors, commodity prices, and monetary policy: International evidence’, Economic Systems 45 (March): 100850.

Globalisation and Trade program

Akhtaruzzaman M, Berg N, Lien D & Wu Y (2021) ‘News coverage of Confucius Institutes in the pre-Trump era’, Economic and Political Studies, DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2020.1870025.
Akhtaruzzaman M, Khanal A and Kularatne I (2021) ‘The influence of social media on stakeholder engagement and the corporate social responsibility of small businesses’, Corp Soc Responsib Environ Manag. 2021;1–9.

Growth, Demographics and Productivity program

Bishnu M, Garg S, Garg T and Ray T (2021) ‘Optimal intergenerational transfers: Public education and pensions’, Journal of Public Economics (CAMA WP 58/2020).
Kudrna G, Tran C, and Woodland A (2021) ‘Sustainable and equitable pensions with means testing in aging economies’, European Economic Review, forthcoming.
Leigh A (2021) ‘Australian mobility report cards: Which universities admit the most disadvantaged students?’, Australian Economic Review, 54(3): 331-342.
Leigh A (2021) ‘This Time it’s Ideological!’, Œconomia 11(1): 135-142.
Leigh A (2021) ‘Putting the Australian economy on the scales’, The Australian Economic Review, doi 10.1111/1467-8462.12408.
Leigh A and Triggs A (2021) ‘Common ownership of competing firms: Evidence from Australia’, Economic Record, 97(318): 333–349.
Lu Y, Zhou Y (2021) ‘A review on the economics of artificial intelligence’, Journal of Economic Surveys 2021 1– 28 (CAMA WP 54/2019).
• McAllister I and Leigh A (2021) ‘Political gold: The Australian sports grants scandal’, Political Studies, forthcoming.
• Muroishi M and Yakita A (2021) ‘Agglomeration economies, congestion diseconomies, and fertility dynamics in a two‑region economy’. Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences 14, 51-63.
Yakita A (2021) ‘Is tightening immigration policy good for workers in the receiving economy?’, Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science 5(3), pp. 975–991.

Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program

Bellofatto AA and Besfamille M (2021) ‘Tax decentralization notwithstanding regional disparities’, Journal of Urban Economics, Volume 123, 2021, 103346, ISSN 0094-1190,
• Coibion O, Gorodnichenko Y, Kumar S and Ryngaert J (2021) ‘Do you know that I know…? Higher order beliefs in survey data’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, forthcoming.
• Davis S, Fujiwara I, Huang K and Wang J (2021) ‘Foreign exchange as a tool for capital account management’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 117, 473-488.
• Fernández-Villaverde J, Mandelman F, Yu Y, and Zanetti F (2021), ‘The “Matthew effect” and market concentration: Search complementarities and monopsony power’, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 62-90. (CAMA WP 22/2021).
Fujiwara I and Waki Y (2021) ‘The Delphic forward guidance puzzle in New Keynesian models’ Review of Economic Dynamics, forthcoming.
• Gortz C, Tsoukalas J, and Zanetti F (2021), ‘News shocks under financial frictions’, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, forthcoming (CAMA WP 94/2020).
Hall VB and Thomson P (2021) ‘Does Hamilton’s OLS regression provided a “better alternative” to the Hodrick-Prescott filter? A New Zealand Business Cycle Perspective’. Journal of Business Cycle Research, (CAMA WP 71/ 2020).
Hall VB and McDermott CJ (2021) ‘Changes in New Zealand’s Business Insolvency Rates after the GFC’, New Zealand Economic Papers, 55(2), 173-187.
Kumar S and Wesselbaum D (2021), ‘Contracts and firms’ inflation expectations’, Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming.
Libich J and Lenten LJ (2021), ‘Hero or Villain? The Financial System in the 21st Century’, forthcoming at the Journal of Economic Surveys.
Libich J and Lenten (2021), ‘Bitcoin, Tesla and GameStop Bubbles as a Flight to Focal Points’, World Economics, 22(1), pp83-107.
Makin AJ and Layton A (2021) ‘The global fiscal response to COVID-19: Risks and repercussions’, Economic Analysis and Policy 69, 340-349.
Makin AJ and Verikios G (2021) ‘Macroeconomic gains from liberalising foreign investment in APEC’, Journal of the Asia-Pacific Economy.

Macroeconomic Theory program

Bishnu M and Kumru CS (2021) ’ A note on the annuity role of estate tax’, Macroeconomic Dynamics, forthcoming.
Groshenny N, Haque Q and Weder M (2021) ‘Do we really know that U.S. monetary policy was destabilizing in the 1970s?’ European Economic Review, Volume 131, January 2021, 103615.
• Guillén J, Maldonado WL and Ribeiro J (2021) ‘An international reserves variation threshold to increase loan funding’, International Economics and Economic Policy, forthcoming.
Haque Q (2021) ‘Monetary policy, inflation target and the great moderation: An empirical investigation’, International Journal of Central Banking, forthcoming.
Haque Q and Magnusson LM (2021) ‘Uncertainty shocks and inflation dynamics in the US’, Economic Letters,
Haque Q, Magnusson LM and Tomioka K (2021) ‘Empirical evidence on the dynamics of investment under uncertainty in the US, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
• Jiang D and Weder M (2021) ‘American business cycles 1889-1913: An accounting approach’, Journal of Macroeconomics 67, 103285.
Pavlov O (2021) ‘Multi-product firms and increasing marginal costs’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 133, 104239.

Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics program

• Apaitan T, Luangaram P, Manopimoke P (2021) ‘Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: Evidence from Thailand’, Empirical Economics.
Baumeister C, Leiva-Leon D and Sims E (2021) ‘Tracking weekly state-level economic conditions’, Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming (CAMA WP 55/2021).
Baumeister C and Guerin P (2021) ‘A comparison of monthly global indicators for forecasting growth’, International Journal of Forecasting, forthcoming (CAMA WP 93/2020).
Chatterjee A, Morley J and Singh A (2021). ‘Estimating household consumption insurance’. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1– 8.
• Kwas M, Paccagnini A, Rubaszek M (2021) ‘Common factors and the dynamics of industrial metal prices. A forecasting perspective’, Resources Policy, Volume 74, 2021, 102319, ISSN 0301-4207,
Li M and Mendieta-Muñoz I (2021) ‘Bayesian analysis of structural correlated unobserved components and identification via heteroskedasticity’, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, vol. , no. , 2021, pp. 20200027.
Paccagnini A et al (2021), ‘Forecasting: Theory and practice’, International Journal of Forecasting, forthcoming.

Multi-Country Models and Methods program

• García-León D, Casanueva A, Standardi G. et al (2021) ‘Current and projected regional economic impacts of heatwaves in Europe’. Nat Commun 12, 5807,
• Magnusson L, Paranavithana H, Tyers R and Schiffmann F (2021) ‘Monetary policy regimes: a global assessment’, The World Economy, forthcoming.
• Magnusson L, Paranavithana H and Tyers R (2021) ‘Assessing monetary policy targeting regimes for small open economies’, Asian Economic Journal,
McKibbin WJ and Triggs AJ (2021) ‘Global implications of a US-led currency war, The World Economy. doi 10.1111/twec.13112

Open Economy Macroeconomics program

Comunale M and Mongelli FP (2021) ‘Tracking growth in the euro area subject to a dimensionality problem’, Applied Economics, forthcoming.
Görtz C, Gunn C, Lubik TA (2021) ‘Is there news in inventories?’, Journal of Monetary Economics, forthcoming.
Görtz C, Tsoukalas JD, Zanetti F (2021) ‘News shocks under financial frictions’, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, forthcoming (CAMA WP 94/2020).
• Ilori AE, Paez-Farrell J, and Thoenissen C (2021) ‘Fiscal policy shocks and international spillovers’, European Economic Review, forthcoming (CAMA WP 95/2020).
• Kameda T, Nambda R, and Tsuruga T (2021) ‘Decomposing local fiscal multipliers: Evidence from Japan’, Japan and the World Economy, forthcoming.
Kano T (2021) ‘Exchange rates and fundamentals: a general equilibrium exploration’, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 53, 95-117. (CAMA WP 62/2013).
• Kato R, Okuda T, and Tsuruga T (2021) ‘Sectoral inflation persistence, market concentration, and imperfect common knowledge’, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Volume 192, 2021, Pages 500-517, ISSN 0167-2681,
• Kato R and Tsuruga T (2021) ‘Pecuniary externalities, bank overleverage, and macroeconomic fragility’, International Journal of Economic Theory.
Kollmann R (2021) ‘The real exchange rate and household consumption heterogeneity: Testing Kocherlakota and Pistaferri’s (2007) model’, Economic Letters, forthcoming.
Kollmann R (2021) ‘Liquidity traps in a world economy’, Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, forthcoming (CAMA WP 05/2021).
Kollmann R (2021) ‘Liquidity traps in a monetary union’, Oxford Economic Papers, forthcoming (CAMA WP 75/2020).
Kollmann R, Lubik T and Roeger W (2021) ‘Secular stagnation, low interest rates and low inflation: Causes and implications for policy’, Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, forthcoming.

Book and book chapter

Commodities and the Macroeconomy program

Koh WC (2021).’ Natural resources and economic development’. In S. Tsani and I. Overland (eds.) Handbook of Sustainable Politics and Economics of Natural Resources. United Kingdom: Edward Elgar Publishing, 15-29.

COVID-19 and the Macroeconomy program

Koh WC (2021). ‘Policy priorities for post-COVID-19 economic recovery in the Mekong region’. In K. Ngoun and K. Chheng (eds.) Post-COVID-19 Economic Recovery in the Mekong Region. Phnom Penh: Asian Vision Institute, 16-27.

Finance and the Macroeconomy program

Kavuri AS and Milne A (2021), ‘How technology is supporting working capital finance’, in Palgrave MacMillan Handbook of Technological Finance edited by Raghavendra (Raghu) Rau, Robert Wardrop, Luigi Zingales. Palgrave Macmillan UK.
• Chen D, Kavuri AS and Milne A (2021), ‘Growing pains: the changing regulation of alternative lending platforms’, in Palgrave MacMillan Handbook of Technological Finance edited by Raghavendra (Raghu) Rau, Robert Wardrop, Luigi Zingales. Palgrave Macmillan UK.
Kavuri AS and Milne A (2021), ‘Trading and Regulation of Cryptocurrencies, Stablecoins and other Cryptoassets’, in The Routledge Handbook of Fintech edited by K. Thomas Liaw. Routledge, UK.

Growth, Demographics and Productivity program

Leigh A (2021) What’s the worst that could happen? Existential risk and extreme politics, MIT Press.

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