Publications 2020

Behavioural Macroeconomics and Complexity program

Di Guilmi C, Gallegati M, Landini S and Stiglitz JE (2020) ‘An analytical solution for network models with heterogeneous and interacting agents’, forthcoming in the Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization.
Galimberti JK (2020) ‘Forecasting GDP Growth from Outer Space’. Oxf Bull Econ Stat, 82: 697-722. doi:10.1111/obes.12361.
• Lojak B and Proano CR (2020) ‘Animal spirits, risk premier and monetary policy at the zero lower bound’, Journal of Economic Behaviour and Organisation, 171, 221-233.
McDonald IM (2020) ‘A Keynesian model of aggregate demand in the long-run’, Metroeconomica, forthcoming.
• Proano C (2021) ‘On the macroeconomic and social impact of the coronavirus pandemic in Latin America and the developing world’, Intereconomics, volume 55, 2020, number 3, pp 159-162.

Climate Change and Energy program

• Best R, Burke PJ, and Jotzo F (2020) ‘Carbon pricing efficacy: Cross-country evidence’. Environmental and Resource Economics 77(1), 69–94.
• Best R and Burke PJ (2020) Energy mix persistence and the effect of carbon pricing. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 64(3), 555–574.
• Couharde C, Damette O, Generoso R and Mohaddes K (2020) ‘The growth effects of El Niño and La Niña: Local weather conditions matter’,Energy Research & Social Science 72, pp. 101892/1–17.
Janda K and Kourilek J, ‘Residual shape risk on natural gas market with mixed jump diffusion price dynamics.’ Energy Economics, January 2020, vol. 85, article 104465,
Liu W, McKibbin WJ, Morris AC, Wilcoxen PJ (2020) ‘Global economic and environmental outcomes of the Paris Agreement’, Energy Economics, Volume 90, August 2020, 104838,
McKibbin WJ, Morris AC, Wilcoxen PJ , and Panton AJ (2020) ‘Climate change and monetary policy: issues for policy design and modelling’, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume 36, Number 3, 2020, pp. 579–603.
• Perdana S and Tyers R (2020) ‘Global climate change mitigation: strategic incentives’, The Energy Journal, Volume 41, No 3: 183-206.

Commodities and the Macroeconomy program

• Bardhan R, Darby S, Debnath R, Mohaddes K, and Sunikka-Blank M (2020) ‘Grounded reality meets machine learning: A deep-narrative analysis framework for energy policy research’, Energy Research & Social Science, 69, pp. 101704/1-14.
• Chaudhuri K, Jibril H and Mohaddes K (2020) ‘Asymmetric oil prices and trade imbalances: Does the source of the oil shock matter?’, Energy Policy 137, pp. 1–15.
• Majumder MK, Raghavan M and Vespignani J (2020) ‘Oil curse, economic growth and trade openness’, forthcoming on Energy Economics.
Mohaddes K and Williams RJ (2020) ‘The adaptive investment effect: Evidence from Chinese provinces’, Economics Letters 193, pp. 109332/1-4.
Raghavan M (2020) ‘An analysis of the global oil market using SVARMA models’, Energy Economics, 104633.

COVID-19 and the Macroeconomy program

• Bruno V, Buonomo C, Buonomo OC, Caspi J, Chiaravalloti A, Gualtieri P, Materazzi M, Palombi L, Pellicciaro M, Piccione E, Pistolese CA, Oldani C (2020) ‘Lockdown of Breast Cancer Screening for COVID-19: Possible Scenario’, In Vivo, September-October 2020 vol. 34 no. 5 3047-3053.
• Cho S-W, ‘Quantifying the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 outbreak: The case of Sweden’, The Econometrics Journal, Volume 23, Issue 3, September 2020, Pages 323–344, doi 10.1093/ectj/utaa025.
• Maffettone P and Oldani C (2020), ‘COVID-19: A make or break moment for global policy making’, Global Policy Journal, ISSN: 1758-5899, doi: 10.1111/1758-5899.12860.
McKibbin W and Fernando R (2020) ‘The economic impact of COVID-19’ in Baldwin R. and B. Weber Di Mauro, Economics in the Time of COVID-19 , CEPR Vox-EU. London
McKibbin W and Fernando R (2020) ‘The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19: Seven scenarios’ COVID Economics: Vetted and Real Time papers, vol 10. Centre for Economic Policy Research, London. Pp 116-156.

Finance and the Macroeconomy program

Arin K, Braunfels E and Doppelhoffer P (2020) ‘Revisiting the growth effects of fiscal policy: A Bayesian model averaging approach’, forthcoming in Journal of Macroeconomics.
• Bui C, Scheule H, Wu E (2020) ‘A cautionary tale of two extremes: The provision of government liquidity support in the banking sector’, Journal of Financial Stability, forthcoming.
• Corbett J and Xu Y (2020) ‘What a network measure can tell us about financial interconnectedness and output volatility’ Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Volume 58, December 2020, 101105.
• Coccorese P and Shaffer S (2020) ‘Cooperative banks and local economic growth’, forthcoming in Regional Studies (CAMA WP 11 /2018).
• Delis M, Kim S, Politsidis P, Wu E (2020) ‘Regulators vs. markets: Are lending terms influenced by different perceptions of bank risk?’ Journal of Banking & Finance, In Press.
• Ding C, Kavuri AS and Milne A (2020) ’ PS14 Lessons from the rise and fall of Chinese peer-to-peer lending’, Journal of Banking Regulation (2020): 1-11.
• Du Plessis S, Reid M and Siklos P (2020) ‘What drives household inflation expectations in South Africa? Demographics and anchoring under inflation targeting, Economic Systems, forthcoming.
• Dungey M, Marius M, and Treepongkaruna S, 2020, ‘Examining stress in Asian currencies: A perspective offered by high frequency financial market data,’ Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 67. doi: 10.1016/j.intfin.2020.101200.
• Dungey M, Fry-McKibbin RA and Volkov V (2020), ‘Transmission of a resource boom: The case of Australia’, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 82(3), 503-525.
• Fantini G and Oldani C (2020) ‘The use of swaps by local administrations: the case of Italian regions, 2007-2014’, Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting and Financial Management, ISSN: 1096-3367, doi: 10.1108/JPBAFM-12-2019-0184.
• Filardo A and Siklos P (2020) ‘The cross-border credit channel: Implications for the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policies’, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money 67 (July), 101206.
Greenwood-Nimmo M, Nguyen V, Wu E (2020) ‘On the international spillover effects of country-specific financial sector bailouts and sovereign risk shocks’. Economic Record, In Press.
• Hajargasht G, Nguyen J and Valadkhani A (2020) ‘The choice between renewables and non-renewables: Evidence from electricity generation in 29 countries’, Energy Journal, 42(6), Accepted 18 October 2020.
• Hara N, Miyao R and Okimoto T (2020) ‘The effects of asset purchases and normalization of US monetary policy’, Econ Inq. doi:10.1111/ecin.12883.
• Kang W, Ratti R and Vespignani J (2021) ‘Global commodity prices and global stock market volatility shocks: Effects across countries’, Journal of Asia Economics, Volume 71, December 2020, 101249.
• Nguyen J and Valadkhani A (2020) ‘Dynamic responses of tourism arrivals in Australia to daily currency fluctuations’, Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 45, 71-78.
Okimoto T and Takaoka S (2020) ‘No-arbitrage determinants of credit spread curves under the unconventional monetary policy regime in Japan’, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Volume 64, January 2020, 101143.
• Ongsakul V, Treepongkaruna S, Jiraporn P, and Uyar A, 2020, ‘Do firms adjust corporate governance in response to economic policy uncertainty? Evidence from board size,’ Finance Research Letters. doi: 10.1016/
• Rahman A, Shi S and Wang B (2020) ‘Australian housing market booms: Fundamentals or speculation?’, Economic Record, 96:381-401.
• Reid M, Bergman Z, Plessis DS, Bergman MM and Siklos P (2020) ‘Inflation and Monetary Policy: What South African Newspapers Report in an Era of Policy Transparency’, Journal of Economic Issues, 54:3, 732-754, DOI: 10.1080/00213624.2020.1787045 (CAMA WP 48/2019).
• Richardson A, Mulder TVF, Vehbi T (2020) ‘Nowcasting New Zealand GDP using machine learning algorithms’, International Journal of Forecasting, forthcoming (CAMA WP 47/2018).
Pontines V (2020) ‘The real effects of loan-to-value limits: Empirical evidence from Korea’, Empirical Economics, forthcoming (CAMA WP 02/2020).
Pontines V (2020) ‘A Provincial view of consumption risk sharing in Korea: Asset classes as shock absorbers’, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, forthcoming (CAMA WP 23/2019).
• Putz A, Siklos P and Sulewskli C (2020) ‘Networks and trade costs in commodity markets’, European Review of Economic History, forthcoming.
Shaffer S and Spierdijk L (2020) ‘Measuring multi-product banks’ market power using the Lerner index,’ Journal of Banking and Finance, forthcoming.
Siklos P (2020) ‘Inflation Dynamics: Expectations, Structural Breaks and Global Factors’, Review of Economic Analysis 12: 203-223.
Siklos P (2020) ‘Real and financial factors, commodity prices, and monetary policy: International evidence’, Economic Systems, forthcoming.
Siklos P, Stefan M and Wellenreuther C (2020) ‘Metal prices made in China? A network analysis of industrial metal futures’, Journal of Futures Markets, forthcoming.

Globalisation and Trade program

Vines D and Wills S (2020) ‘The rebuilding macroeconomic theory project part II: multiple equilibria, toy models, and policy models in a new macroeconomic paradigm’, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume 36, Issue 3, Autumn 2020, Pages 427–497.

Growth, Demographics and Productivity program

Alpaslan B and Eker EE (2020). ‘The role of social capital in environmental protection efforts: Evidence from Turkey’. Journal of Applied Statistics, available online.
Alpaslan B Lim K Y and Song Y (2020). ‘Growth and welfare in mixed health system financing with physician dual practice in a developing economy: A case of Indonesia’, International Journal of Health Economics and Management, available online.
Alpaslan B and Yildirim J (2020). ‘The missing link: Are individuals with more social capital in better health? Evidence from India’. Social Indicators Research (online first).
• Han J-S and Lee J-W, ‘Demographic change, human capital, and economic growth in Korea’, Japan & The World Economy 53 (2020) 100984.
• Kwak DW and Lee J-W(2020), ‘Aging Labor, ICT Capital and Productivity in Japan and Korea,’ Journal of Japanese and International Economies. 58, December 2020.
Lee J-W, ‘Convergence success and the middle income trap,’ The Developing Economies, 58(1), March 2020.
Yakita A, ‘Economic development and long-term care provision by families, markets and the state.’ Journal of the Economics of Aging 15 (2020) 100210.
Yakita A, ‘Fertility decisions of families in an intergenerational exchange model’. Review of Development Economics 24(4), 2020, 1447-1462.

Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program

• Asako Y, Funki Y, Ueda K, and Uto N, ‘(A)symmetric information bubbles: Experimental evidence’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 110, 103744, 2020.
• Coibion O, Gorodnichenko Y, Kumar S, and Pedemonte M (2020) ‘Inflation expectations a policy tool?,’ Journal of International Economics. Vol. 124.
Eo Y and Lie D (2020) ‘Average inflation targeting and interest-rate smoothing’, forthcoming on Economic Letters.
• Froyen RT and Guender AV, ‘A re-evaluation of the choice of an inflation target in the wake of the global financial crisis,’ forthcoming in New Zealand Economic Papers, 2020.
Fujiwara I and Waki Y (2020) ‘Fiscal forward guidance: A case for selective transparency’, Journal of Monetary Economics Volume 116, December 2020, Pages 236-248.
• Katagiri M, Konishi H, and Ueda K, ‘Aging and deflation from a fiscal perspective,’ Journal of Monetary Economics, 111, 1-15, 2020.
Kumar S (2020) ‘Firms’ asset holdings and inflation expectations.’ Journal of Economic Behavior & Organisation. Vol. 170, pp.193-205.
• Pizzinelli C, Theodoris K and Zanetti F (2020) ‘State dependence in labor market fluctuations’. International Economic Review, vol. 61(3), pages 1027-1072.
Ueda K, ‘Dynamic cost of living index for storable goods’, Economics Letters, 189, 109013, 2020.

Macroeconomic Theory program

• Dai W, Weder M and Zhang B (2020) ‘Animal spirits, financial markets and aggregate instability’, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 52, 2053-2083.
• Gomes A and Maldonado W (2020) ‘Mergers and acquisitions with conditional and unconditional offers’, International Journal of Game Theory doi: 10.1007/s00182-020-00720-6.
Maldonado WL, Egozcue JJ and Pawlowsky-Glahn V (2020) ‘No-arbitrage matrices of exchange rates: Some characterizations’, International Journal of Economic Theory. DOI: 10.1111/ijet.12249.
Miranda-Pinto J (2020) ’ Production network structure, service share, and aggregate volatility’, Review of Economic Dynamics. DOI: 10.1016/

Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics program

• Anderson HM, Koo B, Seo MH, Yao W (2020) ‘High-dimensional predictive regression in the presence of cointegration’, Journal of Econometrics, Volume 2019, Issue 2, December 2020, Pages 456-477.
Berger T, Morley J and Wong B (2020) ‘Nowcasting the output gap’, forthcoming on Journal of Econometrics (CAMA WP 78/2020).
• Colombo V and Paccagnini A (2020) ‘Does the credit supply shock have asymmetric effects on macroeconomic variables?’ forthcoming on Economic Letters.
• Frazier DF and Koo B (2020) ‘Indirect inference for locally stationary models’, Journal of Econometrics. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.08.004.
• Kamber G and Wong B (2020) ‘Global factors and trend inflation’, Journal of International Economics, vol.122(C), 103265 (CAMA WP 62/2019).
• Kapetanios G, Price S, Tasiou M, Ventouri A (2020) ‘State-level wage Phillips curves’, Econometrics and Statistics, ISSN 2452-3062, DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosta.2020.03.005 (CAMA WP 08/2020).
• Kapetanios G, Millard S, Petrova K, Price S (2020) ‘Time-varying cointegration with an application to the UK Great Ratios’, Economics Letters, Volume 193, 2020, 109213, ISSN 0165-1765, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109213 (CAMA WP 53/2018).
Koo B, Linton O, Vecchia DL (2020) ‘Estimation of a nonparametric model for bond prices from cross-section and time series information’, Journal of Econometrics. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.04.014.
• Lütkepohl H and Woźniak T (2020) ‘Bayesian inference for structural vector autoregressions identified by Markov-Switching heteroskedasticity’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 113.
• Mertens E and Nason J, ‘Inflation and professional forecast dynamics: An evaluation of stickiness, persistence, and volatility,’ Quantitative Economics, forthcoming (May 2020).
Nason J and Smith GW, ‘Measuring the slowly evolving trend in US inflation with professional forecasts,’ Journal of Applied Econometrics, forthcoming (April 2020).

Multi-Country Models and Methods program

• Azwar Y and Tyers R (2020) ‘Indonesian macroeconomic policy through two crises’, Journal of the Southeast Asian Economies, forthcoming.
Tyers R and Zhou Y (2020) ‘The US-China trade dispute: a macro perspective’, Singapore Economic Review, forthcoming.

Book and book chapter

Commodities and the Macroeconomy program

• Chudik A and Pesaran MH and Mohaddes K (2020) ‘Identifying Global and National Output and Fiscal Policy Shocks Using a GVAR’, in Tong Li, M. Hashem Pesaran, and Dek Terrell (eds.), Advances in Econometrics (Volume 41): Essays in Honor of Cheng Hsiao, pp. 143–189. Emerald Publishing.

Finance and the Macroeconomy program

• Maffettone P and Oldani C (2020). ‘United in Action’ in G-20 The Riyadh Summit ed. John J. Kirton. GT Media, London.

Growth, Demographics and Productivity program

• Akdemir T, Alpaslan B, and Kiral H (2020). ‘Revisiting conditional cash transfers: General overview and its implementation in Turkey’. In Kiral H, Akdemir T (eds) Public financial management reforms in Turkey: Progress and challenges, Volume 1. Accounting, Finance, Sustainability, Governance & Fraud: Theory and Application, Springer, Singapore. • Leigh A and Terrell A (2020). ‘Reconnected: A community Builder’s Handbook’. La Trobe University Press.

Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program

Makin A (2020) ‘The China-US trade imbalance: Evaluating remedial macroeconomic measures’ in Lau, E., Simonetti, B., Trinugroho, I., Tan, L.M. (Eds.) Economics and Finance Readings, Springer, Singapore.

Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics program

Sinclair T (2020) ‘Continuities and discontinuities in economic forecasting’, Futures past. Economic Forecasting in 20th and 21st Century. Bern, Switzerland.

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