Behavioural Macroeconomics and Complexity program

• Di Guilmi C, Gallegati M, Landini S and Stiglitz JE (2020) ‘An analytical solution for network models with heterogeneous and interacting agents’, forthcoming in the Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization.
• Galimberti JK (2020) ‘Forecasting GDP Growth from Outer Space’. Oxf Bull Econ Stat, 82: 697-722. doi:10.1111/obes.12361.
• Lojak B and Proano CR (2020) ‘Animal spirits, risk premier and monetary policy at the zero lower bound’, Journal of Economic Behaviour and Organisation, 171, 221-233.
• McDonald IM (2020) ‘A Keynesian model of aggregate demand in the long-run’, Metroeconomica, forthcoming.
• Proano C (2021) ‘On the macroeconomic and social impact of the coronavirus pandemic in Latin America and the developing world’, Intereconomics, volume 55, 2020, number 3, pp 159-162.

Climate Change and Energy program

• Best R, Burke PJ, and Jotzo F (2020) ‘Carbon pricing efficacy: Cross-country evidence’. Environmental and Resource Economics 77(1), 69–94.
• Best R and Burke PJ (2020) Energy mix persistence and the effect of carbon pricing. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 64(3), 555–574.
• Couharde C, Damette O, Generoso R and Mohaddes K (2020) ‘The growth effects of El Niño and La Niña: Local weather conditions matter’,Energy Research & Social Science 72, pp. 101892/1–17.
• Janda K and Kourilek J, ‘Residual shape risk on natural gas market with mixed jump diffusion price dynamics.’ Energy Economics, January 2020, vol. 85, article 104465, doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.07.025.
• Liu W, McKibbin WJ, Morris AC, Wilcoxen PJ (2020) ‘Global economic and environmental outcomes of the Paris Agreement’, Energy Economics, Volume 90, August 2020, 104838, doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104838.
• McKibbin WJ, Morris AC, Wilcoxen PJ , and Panton AJ (2020) ‘Climate change and monetary policy: issues for policy design and modelling’, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume 36, Number 3, 2020, pp. 579–603.
• Perdana S and Tyers R (2020) ‘Global climate change mitigation: strategic incentives’, The Energy Journal, Volume 41, No 3: 183-206.

Commodities and the Macroeconomy program

• Bardhan R, Darby S, Debnath R, Mohaddes K, and Sunikka-Blank M (2020) ‘Grounded reality meets machine learning: A deep-narrative analysis framework for energy policy research’, Energy Research & Social Science, 69, pp. 101704/1-14.
• Chaudhuri K, Jibril H and Mohaddes K (2020) ‘Asymmetric oil prices and trade imbalances: Does the source of the oil shock matter?’, Energy Policy 137, pp. 1–15.
• Majumder MK, Raghavan M and Vespignani J (2020) ‘Oil curse, economic growth and trade openness’, forthcoming on Energy Economics.
• Mohaddes K and Williams RJ (2020) ‘The adaptive investment effect: Evidence from Chinese provinces’, Economics Letters 193, pp. 109332/1-4.
• Raghavan M (2020) ‘An analysis of the global oil market using SVARMA models’, Energy Economics, 104633.

COVID-19 and the Macroeconomy program

• Bruno V, Buonomo C, Buonomo OC, Caspi J, Chiaravalloti A, Gualtieri P, Materazzi M, Palombi L, Pellicciaro M, Piccione E, Pistolese CA, Oldani C (2020) ‘Lockdown of Breast Cancer Screening for COVID-19: Possible Scenario’, In Vivo, September-October 2020 vol. 34 no. 5 3047-3053.
• Cho S-W, ‘Quantifying the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 outbreak: The case of Sweden’, The Econometrics Journal, Volume 23, Issue 3, September 2020, Pages 323–344, doi 10.1093/ectj/utaa025.
• Maffettone P and Oldani C (2020), ‘COVID-19: A make or break moment for global policy making’, Global Policy Journal, ISSN: 1758-5899, doi: 10.1111/1758-5899.12860.
• McKibbin W and Fernando R (2020) ‘The economic impact of COVID-19’ in Baldwin R. and B. Weber Di Mauro, Economics in the Time of COVID-19 , CEPR Vox-EU. London
• McKibbin W and Fernando R (2020) ‘The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19: Seven scenarios’ COVID Economics: Vetted and Real Time papers, vol 10. Centre for Economic Policy Research, London. Pp 116-156.

Finance and the Macroeconomy program

• Arin K, Braunfels E and Doppelhoffer P (2020) ‘Revisiting the growth effects of fiscal policy: A Bayesian model averaging approach’, forthcoming in Journal of Macroeconomics.
• Bui C, Scheule H, Wu E (2020) ‘A cautionary tale of two extremes: The provision of government liquidity support in the banking sector’, Journal of Financial Stability, forthcoming.
• Corbett J and Xu Y (2020) ‘What a network measure can tell us about financial interconnectedness and output volatility’ Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Volume 58, December 2020, 101105.
• Coccorese P and Shaffer S (2020) ‘Cooperative banks and local economic growth’, forthcoming in Regional Studies (CAMA WP 11 /2018).
• Delis M, Kim S, Politsidis P, Wu E (2020) ‘Regulators vs. markets: Are lending terms influenced by different perceptions of bank risk?’ Journal of Banking & Finance, In Press.
• Ding C, Kavuri AS and Milne A (2020) ’ PS14 Lessons from the rise and fall of Chinese peer-to-peer lending’, Journal of Banking Regulation (2020): 1-11.
• Du Plessis S, Reid M and Siklos P (2020) ‘What drives household inflation expectations in South Africa? Demographics and anchoring under inflation targeting, Economic Systems, forthcoming.
• Dungey M, Marius M, and Treepongkaruna S, 2020, ‘Examining stress in Asian currencies: A perspective offered by high frequency financial market data,’ Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 67. doi: 10.1016/j.intfin.2020.101200.
• Dungey M, Fry-McKibbin RA and Volkov V (2020), ‘Transmission of a resource boom: The case of Australia’, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 82(3), 503-525.
• Fantini G and Oldani C (2020) ‘The use of swaps by local administrations: the case of Italian regions, 2007-2014’, Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting and Financial Management, ISSN: 1096-3367, doi: 10.1108/JPBAFM-12-2019-0184.
• Filardo A and Siklos P (2020) ‘The cross-border credit channel: Implications for the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policies’, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money 67 (July), 101206.
• Greenwood-Nimmo M, Nguyen V, Wu E (2020) ‘On the international spillover effects of country-specific financial sector bailouts and sovereign risk shocks’. Economic Record, In Press.
• Hajargasht G, Nguyen J and Valadkhani A (2020) ‘The choice between renewables and non-renewables: Evidence from electricity generation in 29 countries’, Energy Journal, 42(6), Accepted 18 October 2020.
• Hara N, Miyao R and Okimoto T (2020) ‘The effects of asset purchases and normalization of US monetary policy’, Econ Inq. doi:10.1111/ecin.12883.
• Kang W, Ratti R and Vespignani J (2021) ‘Global commodity prices and global stock market volatility shocks: Effects across countries’, Journal of Asia Economics, Volume 71, December 2020, 101249.
• Nguyen J and Valadkhani A (2020) ‘Dynamic responses of tourism arrivals in Australia to daily currency fluctuations’, Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 45, 71-78.
• Okimoto T and Takaoka S (2020) ‘No-arbitrage determinants of credit spread curves under the unconventional monetary policy regime in Japan’, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Volume 64, January 2020, 101143.
• Ongsakul V, Treepongkaruna S, Jiraporn P, and Uyar A, 2020, ‘Do firms adjust corporate governance in response to economic policy uncertainty? Evidence from board size,’ Finance Research Letters. doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2020.101613
• Rahman A, Shi S and Wang B (2020) ‘Australian housing market booms: Fundamentals or speculation?’, Economic Record, 96:381-401.
• Reid M, Bergman Z, Plessis DS, Bergman MM and Siklos P (2020) ‘Inflation and Monetary Policy: What South African Newspapers Report in an Era of Policy Transparency’, Journal of Economic Issues, 54:3, 732-754, DOI: 10.1080/00213624.2020.1787045 (CAMA WP 48/2019).
• Richardson A, Mulder TVF, Vehbi T (2020) ‘Nowcasting New Zealand GDP using machine learning algorithms’, International Journal of Forecasting, forthcoming (CAMA WP 47/2018).
• Pontines V (2020) ‘The real effects of loan-to-value limits: Empirical evidence from Korea’, Empirical Economics, forthcoming (CAMA WP 02/2020).
• Pontines V (2020) ‘A Provincial view of consumption risk sharing in Korea: Asset classes as shock absorbers’, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, forthcoming (CAMA WP 23/2019).
• Putz A, Siklos P and Sulewskli C (2020) ‘Networks and trade costs in commodity markets’, European Review of Economic History, forthcoming.
• Shaffer S and Spierdijk L (2020) ‘Measuring multi-product banks’ market power using the Lerner index,’ Journal of Banking and Finance, forthcoming.
• Siklos P (2020) ‘Inflation Dynamics: Expectations, Structural Breaks and Global Factors’, Review of Economic Analysis 12: 203-223.
• Siklos P (2020) ‘Real and financial factors, commodity prices, and monetary policy: International evidence’, Economic Systems, forthcoming.
• Siklos P, Stefan M and Wellenreuther C (2020) ‘Metal prices made in China? A network analysis of industrial metal futures’, Journal of Futures Markets, forthcoming.

Globalisation and Trade program

• Vines D and Wills S (2020) ‘The rebuilding macroeconomic theory project part II: multiple equilibria, toy models, and policy models in a new macroeconomic paradigm’, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume 36, Issue 3, Autumn 2020, Pages 427–497.

Growth, Demographics and Productivity program

• Alpaslan B and Eker EE (2020). ‘The role of social capital in environmental protection efforts: Evidence from Turkey’. Journal of Applied Statistics, available online.
• Alpaslan B Lim K Y and Song Y (2020). ‘Growth and welfare in mixed health system financing with physician dual practice in a developing economy: A case of Indonesia’, International Journal of Health Economics and Management, available online.
• Alpaslan B and Yildirim J (2020). ‘The missing link: Are individuals with more social capital in better health? Evidence from India’. Social Indicators Research (online first).
• Clark G, Leigh A and Pottenger M (2020), ‘Immobile Australia: Surnames show strong status persistence, 1870–2017’ Explorations in Economic History, vol 76, article 101327.
• Han J-S and Lee J-W, ‘Demographic change, human capital, and economic growth in Korea’, Japan & The World Economy 53 (2020) 100984. doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2019.100984.
• Kwak DW and Lee J-W(2020), ‘Aging Labor, ICT Capital and Productivity in Japan and Korea,’ Journal of Japanese and International Economies. 58, December 2020.
• Lee J-W, ‘Convergence success and the middle income trap,’ The Developing Economies, 58(1), March 2020.
• Yakita A, ‘Economic development and long-term care provision by families, markets and the state.’ Journal of the Economics of Aging 15 (2020) 100210.
• Yakita A, ‘Fertility decisions of families in an intergenerational exchange model’. Review of Development Economics 24(4), 2020, 1447-1462.

Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program

• Asako Y, Funki Y, Ueda K, and Uto N (2020), ‘(A)symmetric information bubbles: Experimental evidence’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 110, 103744.
• Coibion O, Gorodnichenko Y, Kumar S, and Pedemonte M (2020) ‘Inflation expectations a policy tool?,’ Journal of International Economics. Vol. 124.
• Eo Y and Lie D (2020) ‘Average inflation targeting and interest-rate smoothing’, forthcoming on Economic Letters.
• Friesl M, Libich J and Stehlík P (2020), ‘Fixing Ice Hockey’s Low-scoring Flip Side? Just Flip the Sides’, Annals of Operations Research, 292(1), 27-45.
• Froyen RT and Guender AV (2020), ‘A re-evaluation of the choice of an inflation target in the wake of the global financial crisis,’ forthcoming in New Zealand Economic Papers.
• Fujiwara I and Waki Y (2020) ‘Fiscal forward guidance: A case for selective transparency’, Journal of Monetary Economics Volume 116, December 2020, Pages 236-248.
• Katagiri M, Konishi H, and Ueda K (2020), ‘Aging and deflation from a fiscal perspective,’ Journal of Monetary Economics, 111, 1-15.
• Kumar S (2020) ‘Firms’ asset holdings and inflation expectations.’ Journal of Economic Behavior & Organisation. Vol. 170, pp.193-205.
• Libich J (2020), ‘Can Money Turn Bad News into Good News?’, World Economics, 21(2), pp165-181.
• Pizzinelli C, Theodoris K and Zanetti F (2020) ‘State dependence in labor market fluctuations’. International Economic Review, vol. 61(3), pages 1027-1072.
• Ueda K (2020), ‘Dynamic cost of living index for storable goods’, Economics Letters, 189, 109013.
• Hall VB and McDermott CJ (2020) ‘The business cycle and monetary policy: what changed after the GFC?’ New Zealand Economic Papers, 54(3), 312-324.

Macroeconomic Theory program

• Dai W, Weder M and Zhang B (2020) ‘Animal spirits, financial markets and aggregate instability’, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 52, 2053-2083.
• Gomes A and Maldonado W (2020) ‘Mergers and acquisitions with conditional and unconditional offers’, International Journal of Game Theory doi: 10.1007/s00182-020-00720-6.
• Maldonado WL, Egozcue JJ and Pawlowsky-Glahn V (2020) ‘No-arbitrage matrices of exchange rates: Some characterizations’, International Journal of Economic Theory. DOI: 10.1111/ijet.12249.
• Miranda-Pinto J (2020) ’ Production network structure, service share, and aggregate volatility’, Review of Economic Dynamics. DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2020.07.001.

Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics program

• Anderson HM, Koo B, Seo MH, Yao W (2020) ‘High-dimensional predictive regression in the presence of cointegration’, Journal of Econometrics, Volume 2019, Issue 2, December 2020, Pages 456-477.
• Berger T, Morley J and Wong B (2020) ‘Nowcasting the output gap’, forthcoming on Journal of Econometrics (CAMA WP 78/2020).
• Colombo V and Paccagnini A (2020) ‘Does the credit supply shock have asymmetric effects on macroeconomic variables?’ forthcoming on Economic Letters.
• Frazier DF and Koo B (2020) ‘Indirect inference for locally stationary models’, Journal of Econometrics. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.08.004.
• Kamber G and Wong B (2020) ‘Global factors and trend inflation’, Journal of International Economics, vol.122(C), 103265 (CAMA WP 62/2019).
• Kapetanios G, Price S, Tasiou M, Ventouri A (2020) ‘State-level wage Phillips curves’, Econometrics and Statistics, ISSN 2452-3062, DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosta.2020.03.005 (CAMA WP 08/2020).
• Kapetanios G, Millard S, Petrova K, Price S (2020) ‘Time-varying cointegration with an application to the UK Great Ratios’, Economics Letters, Volume 193, 2020, 109213, ISSN 0165-1765, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109213 (CAMA WP 53/2018).
• Koo B, Linton O, Vecchia DL (2020) ‘Estimation of a nonparametric model for bond prices from cross-section and time series information’, Journal of Econometrics. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.04.014.
• Lütkepohl H and Woźniak T (2020) ‘Bayesian inference for structural vector autoregressions identified by Markov-Switching heteroskedasticity’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 113.
• Mertens E and Nason J, ‘Inflation and professional forecast dynamics: An evaluation of stickiness, persistence, and volatility,’ Quantitative Economics, forthcoming (May 2020).
• Nason J and Smith GW, ‘Measuring the slowly evolving trend in US inflation with professional forecasts,’ Journal of Applied Econometrics, forthcoming (April 2020).

Multi-Country Models and Methods program

• Azwar Y and Tyers R (2020) ‘Indonesian macroeconomic policy through two crises’, Journal of the Southeast Asian Economies, forthcoming.
• Tyers R and Zhou Y (2020) ‘The US-China trade dispute: a macro perspective’, Singapore Economic Review, forthcoming.

Book and book chapter

Commodities and the Macroeconomy program

• Chudik A and Pesaran MH and Mohaddes K (2020) ‘Identifying Global and National Output and Fiscal Policy Shocks Using a GVAR’, in Tong Li, M. Hashem Pesaran, and Dek Terrell (eds.), Advances in Econometrics (Volume 41): Essays in Honor of Cheng Hsiao, pp. 143–189. Emerald Publishing.

Finance and the Macroeconomy program

• Maffettone P and Oldani C (2020). ‘United in Action’ in G-20 The Riyadh Summit ed. John J. Kirton. GT Media, London.

Growth, Demographics and Productivity program

• Akdemir T, Alpaslan B, and Kiral H (2020). ‘Revisiting conditional cash transfers: General overview and its implementation in Turkey’. In Kiral H, Akdemir T (eds) Public financial management reforms in Turkey: Progress and challenges, Volume 1. Accounting, Finance, Sustainability, Governance & Fraud: Theory and Application, Springer, Singapore. • Leigh A and Terrell A (2020). ‘Reconnected: A community Builder’s Handbook’. La Trobe University Press.

Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program

• Makin A (2020) ‘The China-US trade imbalance: Evaluating remedial macroeconomic measures’ in Lau, E., Simonetti, B., Trinugroho, I., Tan, L.M. (Eds.) Economics and Finance Readings, Springer, Singapore.

Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics program

• Sinclair T (2020) ‘Continuities and discontinuities in economic forecasting’, Futures past. Economic Forecasting in 20th and 21st Century. Bern, Switzerland.