Publications 2014

Climate Change and Energy program

• Arora V, Cai Y (2014). “U.S. natural gas exports and their global impacts”. Applied Energy 120, 95-103
• Blahova, P, Janda K and Kristoufek, L. (forthcoming) “The Perspectives for Genetically Modified Cellulosic Biofuels in the Central European Conditions.” Agricultural Economics
• Bruns S. B., Gross C., and Stern D. I. (2014) “Is there really Granger causality between energy use and output?” Energy Journal 35(4), 101-134
Cai Y, Kamihigashi T and Stachurski J (2014) “Stochastic optimal growth with risky labor supply.” Journal of Mathematical Economics 50, 167-176
Janda K, Kristoufek, L and Zilberman, D. (forthcoming)”Price Transmission between Biofuels, Fuels and Food Commodities.” Biofuels, Bio-products and Biorefining
• Kander A. and Stern D. I.(2014) “Economic growth and the transition from traditional to modern energy in Sweden”, Energy Economics 46, 56-65
Stern D. I. and Kaufmann R.K. (2014) “Anthropogenic and natural causes of climate change”, Climatic Change 122, 257-269

Commodities and the Macroeconomy program

Chen YC, Turnovsky SJ, Zivot E, (2014) “Forecasting inflation using commodity price aggregates,” Journal of Econometrics

Finance and the Macroeconomy program

• Apergis N and Cooray A (2014). “Convergence in Sovereign Debt Ratios across Highly in Debt EU Countries: Evidence from Club Convergence”, Applied Economics Letters, 21(11), 786-788.
• Apergis N and Cooray A (2014) “Tax Revenues Convergence across ASEAN, Pacific and Oceania Countries: Evidence from Club Convergence”, Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 27(October), 11-21
Arin K, Anbarci N, and Lee J. ‘Gender Differences in Responses to Contingent Rewards: Evidence from a Field Experiment of Junior Tennis’, Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 2014, 53, 131-137.
• Arslanalp S and Liao Y, (forthcoming). “Banking Sector Contingent Liabilities and Sovereign Credit Risk”, Journal of Empirical Finance.
Boschi M, Girardi A, and Ventura M, ‘Partial credit guarantees and SMEs financing’, Journal of Financial Stability, 15(C), 182-194, December 2014.
• Bu D and Liao Y. “Corporate Credit Risk Prediction with Stochastic Volatility and Jumps”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2014(47), 263-281
Cooray A. (2014). “Do Low Skilled Migrants Contribute More to Home Country Income? Evidence from South Asia”, B.E Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy, 14(3), 1185-1212.
Cooray A, Mallick S and Dutta N. (2014.) “Gender Specific Human Capital, Openness and Growth: Exploring the Linkages for South Asia”, Review of Development Economics, 18 (1), 107-122.
Cooray A, Verma R and Wright L. (2014). “Does a Gender Disparity Exist in Academic Rank? Evidence from an Australian University”, Applied Economics, 46 (20), 2441-2451.
Cooray A. (2014) “Who Remits: An Examination of Emigration by Education Level and Gender”, The World Economy, 37(10), 1441-1453.
Dungey M, Jacobs JPAM, Jing Tian and Simon van Norden (2014). “Trend in Cycle or Cycle in Trend? New Structural Identications for Unobserved Components Models of U.S. Real GDP”. Macroeconomic Dynamics. Published online: DOI:, 13 June 2014
Fry-McKibbin, R.A., Martin V.L., Tang, C. (2014) “Financial Contagion and Asset Pricing”, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol.47, pp.296 - 308.
• Gorter, Janko, Stolwijk F, Jacobs JPAM and de Haan J (2014). “ECB Policy-Making and the Financial Crisis”. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 19, 132-139
• Glover KJ and Hambusch G.(2014) “The trade-off theory revisited: on the effect of operating leverage”, International Journal of Managerial Finance, Vol. 10 Iss: 1, pp.2 – 22
• Hasan I, Shaffer S and Zhou M (forthcoming), “New Small Firms and Dimensions of Economic Performance,” Economic Development Quarterly • Kang W, Ratti RA and Yoon KH (2014). “The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on U.S. Bond Market Returns”, Energy Economics, 44, 248-258.
• Kang W, Lee K and Ratti RA (2014). “Economic Policy Uncertainty and Firm-Level Investment”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 39, 42-53.
• Kang W and Ratti RA (forthcoming). “Policy Uncertainty in China, Oil Shocks and Stock Returns”, Economics of Transition.
• Knop, SJ. and Vespignani, JL (2014). “The sectorial impact of commodity price shocks in Australia,” Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 257-271
Liao Y and Stachurski J, (forthcoming). “Simulation-Based Density Estimation for Time Series using Covariate Data”, Journal of Business and Economics Statistics
Morley J and Eo Y “Likelihood-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks,” Quantitative Economics, forthcoming
Okimoto T (2014) “Asymmetric Increasing Trends in Dependence in International Equity Markets”, Journal of Banking & Finance 46, 219-232 [CAMA WP 44/2014]
• Phillips PCB, Shi S and Yu J. (forthcoming), ”Testing for Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory of Real Time Detectors”, International Economic Review
• Qin B and Shaffer S. (forthcoming), ”A Test of Competition in Chinese Banking,” Applied Economics Letters
Shi S and Song Y. (forthcoming), ”Identifying Speculative Bubbles with an Infinite Hidden Markov Model,” Journal of Financial Econometrics
Vespignani, J.L,. 2014 (forthcoming). “On the differential impact of monetary policy across states/territories and its determinants in Australia: Evidence and new methodology from a small open economy” . Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money
Vespignani, J.L(forthcoming). “International transmission of monetary shocks to the Euro area: Evidence from the U.S., Japan and China”. Economic Modelling.

Globalization and Trade program

• Baldwin, R.E. and Okubo, T. (forthcoming) “Tax Competition with Heterogeneous Firms”, Spatial Economic Analysis.
• Baldwin, R.E. and Okubo, T (forthcoming) “Networked FDI: Sales and sourcing patterns of Japanese foreign affiliates”, The World Economy.
• Baldwin, R.E. and Okubo T. (2014) “International Trade, Offshoring and Heterogeneous Firms”, Review of International Economics, 22(1), pp.59-72
• Baldwin, R.E. and Okubo T. (forthcoming) “Networked FDI: Sales and sourcing patterns of Japanese foreign affiliates”, The World Economy.
• Cole, M.A., Elliott, R.J.R., and Okubo, T. (forthcoming) “Environmental Outsourcing”, Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv).
• Forslid, R and Okubo, T (forthcoming) “Which Firms are Left in the Periphery? Spatial Sorting of Heterogeneous Firms with Scale Economies in Transportation”, Journal of Regional Science
• Forslid, R and Okubo, T (2014) “Spatial Sorting with Heterogeneous Firms and Heterogeneous Sectors”, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 46(3), pp.42-56.
• Kondo, K and Okubo T.(forthcoming) “Interregional Labour Migration and Real Wage Disparities: Evidence from Japan”, Papers in Regional Science.
Okubo, T, Kimura, F and Teshima, N (2014) “Asian Fragmentation in the Global Financial Crisis”, International Review of Economics and Finance, 31, pp.114-127.
Okubo T, Picard PM and Thisse J-F (forthcoming) “On the Impact of Competition on Trade and Firm Location”, Journal of Regional Science.
Okubo T and Tomiura, E (forthcoming) “Skew Productivity Distributions and Agglomeration: Evidence from plant-level data”, Regional Studies.

Open Economy Macroeconomics program

• Bailliu J, Dib A, Kano T and Schembri L (2014), “Multilateral adjustment, regime switching and real exchange rate dynamics”, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 27, 68-87
Chen YC (2014), “Understanding Exchange Rate Behavior,” International Finance
Crucini MJ and Yilmazkuday H. “Understanding Long-run Price Dispersion,” Journal of Monetary Economics, forthcoming.
Crucini, MJ and Shintani M. “Measuring Business Cycles By Saving for a Rainy Day,” Canadian Journal of Economics, forthcoming.
Crucini MJ, Shintani M and Tsuruga T (2014) “Real Exchange Rate Dynamis in Sticky Wage Models”. Economics Letters, 123 (2), pp. 160-163
Crucini MJ, Shintani M and Tsuruga T (2014) “Real Exchange Rate Dynamis in Sticky Wage Models”. Economics Letters, 123 (2), pp. 160-163
• Devereux MB, Senay O, Sutherland A (2014) “Nominal Stability and Financial Globalization”. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume 46, Issue5, pp. 921-959
• Fielding, D. and Hajzler C (2014). “Relative Price Variability and Inflation in a Simple Consumer Search Model.” Economics Letters, 123 (1): 17-22
Hajzler C. (2014),“Resource-based FDI and Expropriation in Developing Economies,” Journal of International Economics, 92 (1): 124-146
Hoffmann M, Harms, P, and Ortseifer C (forthcoming), “The Home Bias in Equities and Distribution Costs”, Scandinavian Journal of Economics
Jacob P. (forthcoming) “Deep Habits, Price Rigidities and the Consumption” , Journal of Money, Credit and Banking [CAMA WP 72/2013]
Kano T (forthcoming). “Tractable Latent State Filtering for Non-Linear DSGE Models Using a Second-Order Approximation and Pruning”, Computational Economics.
Kollmann R, Chinn M and Devereux MB. “Current account imbalances and international financial integration”. Journal of International Money and Finance, forthcoming.
Kollmann R, in’t Veld J, Pataracchia B, Ratto M and Roeger W. “’International Capital Flows and the Boom-Bust Cycle in Spain”. Journal of International Money and Finance, forthcoming. [CAMA working paper 40/2014]
Kollmann R, Ratto M, Roeger W,in’t Veld J, and Vogel L . “What Drives the German Current Account? And How Does it Affect Other EU Member States? “. Economic Policy, forthcoming. [CAMA working paper 35/2014]
Senay O and Sutherland A, “Endogenous price flexibility and optimal monetary policy”. Oxford Economic Papers (2014) 66 (4): 1121-1144

Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program

Dennis, R, 2014. “Imperfect credibility and robust monetary policy,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 218-234
Fujiwara I and Hirose Y (2014) “Indeterminacy and Forecastability,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 46(1), 243-251
Fujiwara I, Kim, H., Hansen B and Ogaki M (forthcoming), “Purchasing Power Parity and the Taylor Rule,” Journal of Applied Econometrics
Guender A, “Monetary Policy and the UIP Puzzle: Theory and Empirical Results for Oceania,” Economic Record, v90no209, 2014: 207-219.
Guender A and Froyen R, “Price Level Targeting and the Delegation Issue in an Open Economy” (with Richard Froyen), Economics Letters, v122, 2014: 12-15.
Libich J, Hughes Hallett, A. and Stehlík P. (2014), ‘Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction With Various Degrees of Commitment’, Czech Journal of Economic and Finance, 64(1), pp2-29
Makin AJ (2014) “The Paradoxes and Pitfalls of Revived Fiscal Activism” Economic Affairs 34(1) 60-68
Makin AJ, Narayan, P. and Narayan, S. (2014) “What Expenditure Does Anglosphere Foreign Borrowing Fund?” Journal of International Money and Finance 40 (1), 63-78
Makin, A. (2014) “Reconciling Opposing Views of the Commodity Boom” (2014) Economic Analysis and Policy, 44, 129-135.
• Hansen S, McMahon M, Rivera CV. “Preferences or private assessments on a monetary policy committee?” Journal of Monetary Economics, volume 67, October 2014, pages 16-32

Macroeconomic Theory program

• Gamboa F, Maldonado WL (2014) “Feasibility and optimality of the initial capital stock in the Ramsey vintage capital model.” Journal of Mathematical Economics 52, 40-45 [CAMA Working Paper 38/2013]
• Lee k, Morley J and Shields K (forthcoming), “The Meta Taylor Rule” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking
Lubik T, “Deep Habits in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve”, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 46(1), February 2014, pp. 79-114 [CAMA WP9/2012]

Macroeconomics and Longer Run Issues program

McKibbin WJ, Stoecke AB and Lu YY (2014). “Global Fiscal Adjustment and Trade Rebalancing”. The World Economy, DOI: 10.1111/twec.12185

Model Uncertainty and Macroeconomics program

• Bhattarai S, Lee JW, and Park WW (2014). “Price Indexation, Habit Formation, and the Generalized Taylor Principle” , Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 48. [CAMA working paper 52/2013]
• Bhattarai S, Lee JW, and Park WW (2014). “Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Public Debt and Policy Regimes”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 67. [CAMA working paper 75/2013]
Morley J and Liu Y (2014) “Structural Evolution of the Postwar U.S. Economy,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 42, May 2014, 50-68
Morley J and Yunjong Eo (forthcoming), “Likelihood-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks,” Quantitative Economics
Morley J and Yuelin Liu, “Structural Evolution of the Postwar U.S. Economy,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 42, May 2014, 50-68
Morley J, Fazzari S and Panovska I (forthcoming), “State-Dependent Effects of Fiscal Policy”, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics.
Smith, M.S. and Vahey, S. (2014), ‘Asymmetric density forecasts for U.S. macroeconomic variables from a Gaussian copula model of cross-sectional and serial dependence’, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics (forthcoming).
Smith, M.S. (2014), ‘Copula modelling of dependence in multivariate time series’, International Journal of Forecasting (forthcoming).

Multi-Country Models and Methods program

• Golley, J. and R. Tyers (2014), “Gender rebalancing in China”, Asian Population Studies, (ERA A, GS cites = 3+1 from WP, Taylor and Francis), 10(2): 125-143.
Tyers, R. and Y. Zhang (2014), “Real exchange rate determination and the China puzzle”, Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, November (Survey journal: ABDC C, Blackwell).
Tyers, R. (2014), “Looking inward for transformative growth”, China Economic Review, 29: 166–184 (ABDC A, Elsevier, GS cites = 1+ 12 from WP).
Tyers, R. and Y. Zhang (2014), “Short run implications of China’s reform agenda”, Chapter 7 in R. Garnaut, C. Fang and L. Song (eds), Deepening Reform for China’s Long-Term Growth and Development, Canberra: ANU E Press and Beijing: Social Sciences Academic Press, Pp 159-189.
Tyers, R. (2014), “Looking inward for transformative growth”, China Economic Review, 29: 166–184 (ABDC “A”).

CAMA PhD student publication

Phan, T. (2014), Output Composition of the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism: Is Australia Different?. Economic Record, 90: 382–399. doi: 10.1111/1475-4932.12121. [CAMA working paper 39/2014]


Finance and the Macroeconomy program

• Boonman T, Jacobs JPAM and Kuper GH, “Currency crises in Mexico 1990-2009: An Early Warning System Approach”. In: S. Coronado-Ramirez, P.L. Celso-Arellano and C. Trejo-Pech (eds.), Nonlinear Time Series and Finance, University of Guadalajara, Chapter 2,34-51, 2014
• Claessens S; Kose MA; Laeven L; Valencia F. Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses, International Monetary Fund, 2014.

Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program

Makin, A. and Arora, R. (2014) “How Solid are the BRICS?: An Economic Overview” (2014) in V. Lo and M. Hiscock (eds) The Rise of BRICS in the Global Political Economy Edward Elgar, Cheltenam.

Model Uncertainty and Macroeconomics program

Chan J and D.P. Kroese, Statistical Modeling and Computation, Springer, 2014
Sinclair TM, Joutz F, and Stekler HO, “Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy? ” In: Madrick J, Why the Experts Missed the Recession, The New York Review of Books, September 25, 2014, Volume 61, Number 14

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