Publications 2019

Behavioural Macroeconomics and Complexity program

• Cohen SN, Henckel T, Menzies GD, Muhle-Karbe J, Zizzo DJ, 2019, ‘Switching cost models as hypothesis tests’. Economics Letters (forthcoming). (CAMA WP 40/2018).
Henckel T, Menzies G, Moffatt P and Zizzo D, 2019, ‘Three Dimensions of Central Bank Credibility and Inferential Expectations: The Euro Zone’. Journal of Macroeconomics (forthcoming).
McDonald IM, 2019, ‘The economics of ageing-what do you face?’, Australian Economic Review, 52, 4, 496-506.
McDonald IM, 2019, ‘John Maynard Keynes, Joan Robinson and the prospect theory approach to money wage determination’, Metroeconomica, 70, 1, 45-67.

Climate Change and Energy program

• Al Irsyad MI, Halog A, Nepal R, 2019, ‘Estimating the impacts of financing support policies towards photovoltaic market in Indonesia: A social-energy-economy-environment model simulation’, Journal of Environmental Management, 230 pp. 464-473. ISSN 0301-4797 (CAMA WP 02/2019).
• Al Irsyad MI, Nepal R, Nepal SK, 2019, ‘Tourist arrivals, energy consumption and pollutant emissions in a developing economy-implications for sustainable tourism’, Tourism Management, 72 pp. 145-154. ISSN 0261-5177 (CAMA WP 03/2019).
• Best R, Burke P and Jotzo F, 2019, ‘Closures of coal‐fired power stations in Australia: Local unemployment effects’, Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 62(1), 142–165.
Burke P, Liao H and Teng M, 2019, ‘The demand for coal among China’s rural households: Estimates of price and income elasticities’, Energy Economics 80, 928–936.
Burke PJ and Siyaranamual MD, 2019, ‘No one left behind in Indonesia?’ Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies 55(3), 269–293.
• Gregory KB and Lang PA, 2019, ‘Economic impact of energy comsumption change caused by global warming’. Energies 2019, 12(18), 3575.
• Halog A, Indra M and Nepal R, 2019, ‘Renewable Energy Projections for Climate Change Mitigation: An Analysis of Uncertainty and Errors’, Renewable Energy, Vol. 130, pp. 536-546, 2019 (CAMA WP 74/2017).
Janda K and Kristoufek L, 2019, ‘The Relationship between Fuel and Food Prices: Methods and Outcomes’. Annual Review of Resource Economics 2019, vol. 11, pp. 195-216.
Nepal R and Paija N, 2019, ‘Energy security, electricity, population and economic growth: the case of a developing South Asian resource-rich economy’, Energy Policy, 132, (September) pp. 771-781. ISSN 0301-4215.
Nepal R and Paija N, 2019, ‘A Multivariate Time Series Analysis of Energy Consumption, Real output and Pollutant Emissions in a Developing Economy: New Evidence from Nepal’, Economic Modelling,
• Nguyen J and Valadkhani A, 2019, ‘Long-run effects of disaggregated renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on real output’, Applied Energy. Accepted 27 August 2019.
• Nguyen J, Smyth R and Valadkhani A, 2019, ‘Effects of primary energy consumption on CO2 emissions under optimal thresholds: Evidence from sixty countries over the last half century’, Energy Economics, 80, 680-690.
• Perdana S and Tyers R, 2019, ‘Global climate change mitigation: strategic incentives’, The Energy Journal, forthcoming (CAMA WP 10/2018).

Commodities and the Macroeconomy program

• Jarrett U, Mohaddes K and Mohtadi H, 2019, ‘Oil Price Volatility, Financial Institutions and Economic Growth’, Energy Policy 126, pp. 131–144.
Nguyen BH and Tatsuyoshi O, 2019, ‘Asymmetric Reactions of the U.S. Natural Gas Market and Economic Activity’. Energy Economics 80, 86-99.

Finance and the Macroeconomy program

Arin K, Caporale GM, Kyriacou K and Spagnolo N (2019) ‘Financial Integration in the GCC Region: Market Size versus National Effects’ forthcoming in Open Economies Review.
Arin K, Fees E, Kuhlenkasper T and Reich O (2019) ‘Negotiating with terrorists: Costs of compliance’ Southern Economic Journal, 2019, 86(1), 305-317.
• Abeln B, Jacobs JPAM and Ouwehand P, 2019, CAMPLET: ‘Seasonal adjustment without revisions’. Journal of Business Cycle Research (forthcoming).
• Anbarci N, Arin KP and Zenker C, 2019, ‘Tennis serve data may elude some as serves get too fast’, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 16(1), pages 124“-29-1, March.
Boschi M and d’Addona S, 2019, The stability of tax elasticities over the business cycle in European countries, Fiscal Studies, 10.1111/1475-5890.12184, (forthcoming).
• Bowden M, Nguyen J and Valadkhani A, 2019, ‘Pathways to reduce CO2 emissions as countries proceed through stages of economic development’, Energy Policy (forthcoming).
• Brooks R, Padungsaksawasdi C, Treepongkaruna S, 2019, ‘Investor attention and stock market activities: New evidence from Panel Data’, International Journal of Financial Studies, accepted 10 June 2019.
• Chiew D, Qiu J, Shi C, Treepongkaruna S and Yang J, 2019, ‘The predictive ability of the expected utility-entropy based fund rating approach: A comparison investigation with Morningstar ratings in US’, PLOS One, accepted 11 April 2019.
• Clare A, Seaton J, Smith PN and Thomas S, 2019, ‘Can Sustainable Withdrawal Rates be Enhanced by Trend Following?’, International Journal of Finance and Economics, forthcoming.
• Dungey M, Hurn S, Shi S and Volkov V, 2019, ‘Information flow in times of crisis: The case of the European banking and sovereign sectors’, Econometrics (Special Issue Celebrated Econometricians: Peter Phillips), 2019, 7(1), 5; doi:10.3390/econometrics7010005
• Goldewijk GMK, Jacobs JPAM, Jongman WM, 2019, ‘Health and Wealth in the Roman Empire’. Economics and Human Biology (forthcoming).
Greenwood-Nimmo MJ, Huang J and Nguyen VH, 2019, ‘Financial sector bailouts, sovereign bailouts, and the transfer of credit risk’, Journal of Financial Markets (forthcoming).
• Hajargasht G, Nguyen J and Valadkhani A, 2019, ‘Incorporating daily market uncertainty data into a conventional short-run dynamic model: The case of the black-market exchange rate in Iran’, Applied Economics (forthcoming).
• Hajargasht G, Rao DSP and Valadkhani A, 2019, ‘Reliability of basic heading PPPs’, Economics Letters (forthcoming).
• Hindrayanto I, Jacobs JPAM, Osborn DR and Tian J, 2019, ‘Trend-cycle-seasonal interactions: identification and estimation’. Macroeconomic Dynamics (forthcoming). doi: 10.1017/S1365100517001092.
• Hurn S, Phillips PCB, and Shi S, 2019, ‘Causal change detection in possibly integrated systems: Revisiting the money-income relationship’, Journal of Financial Econometrics (forthcoming).
• Hurn S, Phillips PCB, and Shi S, 2019, ‘Change detection and the causal impact of the yield curve’, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 2018, 39(6): 966-987. Online Supplement.
Jacobs JPAM, Haan L and Panjer N, 2019, Is fiscal policy in the euro area Ricardian? Empirica. doi/org/10.1007/s10663-019-09431-y.
• Jiraporn P, Jumreornvong S, Prommin P and Treepongkaruna S, 2019, ‘The effects of ownership concentration and corporate governance on corporate risk-taking: The case of Thailand’, Accounting Research Journal, accepted 22 April 2019.
• Kang W, Perez de Gracia F, Ratti RA, 2019, ‘The asymmetric response of gasoline prices to oil price shocks and policy uncertainty’, Energy Economics 77, 66-79.
• Kyaw K, Nygaard M F, Stensås A, Treepongkaruna S, 2019, ‘Can Bitcoin be a diversifier, hedge or safe haven tool?’, Cogent Economics & Finance, Accepted manuscript (8 March 2019), 1593072.
• Laurent S and Shi S, 2019, ‘Volatility estimation and jump detection for drift-diffusion processes’, Journal of Econometrics (fortcoming).
• Lim A, Lan Y and Treepongkaruna S, 2019, ‘Asset pricing and energy consumption risk’, Accounting and Finance, accepted 19 May 2019.
• Nguyen J, Smyth R and Valadkhani A, 2019, ‘Effects of primary energy consumption on CO2 emissions under optimal thresholds: Evidence from sixty countries over the last half century’, Energy Economics, 80, 680-690.
• O’Brien, Nguyen J and Valadkhani A, 2019, ‘Asymmetric responses of house prices to changes in the mortgage interest rate: Evidence from the Australian capital cities’, Applied Economics (forthcoming).
Okimoto T, 2019, ‘Trend Inflation and Monetary Policy Regimes in Japan’. Journal of International Money and Finance 92, 137-152.
Oldani C, 2019, ‘On the perils of structured loans financing in France and Italy’, Global Policy, vol. 10, ISSN: 1758-5899, doi: 10.1111/1758-5899.12686.
• Phillips PCB and Shi S, 2019, ‘Detecting financial collapse and ballooning sovereign risk’, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (forthcoming).
Pontines V and Siregar RY, 2019, ‘Non-core liabilities and interest rate pass-through: bank-level evidence from Indonesia’, Applied Economics, Vol. 51, Issue No. 25 (CAMA WP 78/2017).
Ratti RA and Vespignani J, 2019, ‘What drives global Policy/official interest rate?’, Applied Economics 51, 5185-5190, 2019.
Ratti RA and Vespignani J, 2019, ‘Impact of Global Uncertainty on the Global Economy and Large Developed and Developing Economies’, Applied Economics (forthcoming).
Ravazzolo F and Vespignani J, 2019, ‘World Steel Production: a new indicator of monthly real economic activity’, Canadian Journal of Economics (forthcoming).

Growth, Demographics and Productivity program

• Breunig R and Majeed O, 2019, ‘Inequality, poverty and economic growth’, International Economics. (CAMA WP 43/2016)
• Hong k, Hosoe M, Ju B-G and Yakita A, eds, ‘Contemporary issues in applied economics: Ten years of international academic exchanges between JAAE and KAAE’, Springer nature, Switzerland, 2019.
• Mayhew K and Wills S, ‘Inequality: an assessment’, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume 35, Issue 3, Autumn 2019, Pages 351–367,
• McGregor T, Smith B, Wills S, ‘Measuring inequality, Oxford Review of Economic Policy’, Volume 35, Issue 3, Autumn 2019, Pages 368–395,
Yakita A (2019) ‘Optimal long-term care policy in an intergenerational exchange setting’. Research in Economics 73, 321-328.

Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program

• Debortoli D, Kim J, Lindé J and Nunes R, 2019, ‘Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks: Does a Dual Mandate Make Sense?’, The Economic Journal, Volume 129, Issue 621, July 2019, Pages 2010–2038,
Eo Y and Lie D, 2019, ‘The Role of Inflation Target Adjustment in Stabilization Policy’, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (forthcoming).
• Gunarsa S, Makin A and Rohde N, 2019, ‘Public Debt in Asia: a Help or Hindrance to Growth?’ Applied Economics Letters (forthcoming).
Hall VB and McDermott CJ (2019), ‘Changes in New Zealand’s Business Insolvency Rates after the GFC’, New Zealand Economic Papers, published online 18 December 2019,
• Janku J, Libich J, ‘Ignorance isn’t bliss: Uninformed voters drive budget cycles.’ Journal of Public Economics (forthcoming). (CAMA WP 2/2018).
• Kawamura K, Kobashi Y, Shizume M and Ueda K, ‘Strategic Central Bank Communication: Discourse Analysis of the Bank of Japan’s Monthly Report,’ Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 100, 230-250, 2019.
Kim J and Ruge‐Murcia F, 2019, “Extreme events and optimal monetary policy’. International Economic Review, 60: 939-963. doi:10.1111/iere.12372.
Libich J, 2019, ‘Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic: Macroprudential Edition’, Economic Record (forthcoming).
Makin A, 2019, ‘Lessons for Macroeconomic Policy from the Global Financial Crisis’, Economic Analysis and Policy (forthcoming).
Makin A, Pearce J and Ratnasiri S, 2019, ‘The Optimal Size of Government in Australia’ Economic Analysis and Policy 62, 27-36.
Miranda‐Pinto J and Shen Y, 2019, ‘A Granular View of the Australian Business Cycle’. Econ Rec. doi:10.1111/1475-4932.12495.
• Oikawa K and Ueda K, ‘Short- and Long-Run Tradeoff of Monetary Easing’, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 52, 189-200, 2019.
Ueda K, Watanabe K, and Watanabe T, ‘Product turnover and the cost of living index: Quality vs. fashion effects’, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 11(2), 310-347, 2019.

Macroeconomic Theory program

Miranda-Pinto J and Young ER, 2019, ‘Comparing dynamic multisector models’, Economics Letters, Volume 181, 2019, Pages 28-32.

Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics program

• Albonico A, Paccagnini A and Tirelli P, 2019, ‘Limited Asset Market Participation and the Euro Area Crisis. An Empirical DSGE Model, Economic Inquiry (forthcoming).
• Cardani R, Paccagnini A and Villa S, 2019, ‘Forecasting with instabilities: An application to DSGE models with financial frictions’, Journal of Macroeconomics (forthcoming).
Eo Y and Kang KH, ‘The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy on Forecasting the Yield Curve’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, (forthcoming).
• Garratt A, Vahey SP, Zhang Y, 2019, ‘Real-time forecast combinations for the oil price’. Journal of Applied Econometrics, forthcoming (CAMA WP 38/2018).
• Mamertino M and Sinclair T, ‘Migration and online job search: A gravity model approach’, Economics Letters, Volume 181, August 2019, Pages 51-53.
• Masolo RM and Paccagnini A, ‘Identifying Noise Shocks: a VAR with Data Revisions’, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (forthcoming).
Morley J and Wong B, 2019, ‘Estimating and accounting for the output gap with large Bayesian vector autoregressions’, Journal of Applied Econometrics, forthcoming (CAMA WP 46/2017).
Paccagnini A, 2019, Did financial factors matter during the Great Recession?, Economics Letters, Volume 174, January 2019, Pages 26-30.
Sinclair T, 2019, Characteristics and implications of Chinese macroeconomic data revisions on ‘Forecasting Issues in Developing Economies’ in the International Journal of Forecasting (forthcoming).

Multi-Country Models and Methods program

• Asano A and Tyers R, 2019, ‘Japan’s oligopolies: potential economy-wide gains from structural reforms’, Economic Modelling (forthcoming).
Fujiwara I, Kam T and Sunakawa T, 2019, ‘Sustainable international monetary policy cooperation’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 106, 103721, ISSN 0165-1889,
Lee J-W and McKibbin WJ, 2019, ‘Korean unification: Economic adjustments under German assumptions’, Asian Economic Policy Review 14, 1-20.
• Neill K, Hartley P, Tyers R and Adams P, 2019, ‘Western Australia’s domestic gas reservation policy: modelling the economic impact with a CGE approach’, The Economic Record, DOI: 10.1111/1475-4932.12459 (forthcoming).

Open Economy Macroeconomics program

• Benedict C, Crucini MJ and Landry A, 2019, ‘On what states do prices depend? Answers from Ecuador (forthcoming) (CAMA WP 51 /2016).
Comunale M, 2019, ‘Long-run determinants and misalignments of the real effective exchange rate in the EU’, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, vol.66, issue 5, Pages 649-672.
Crucini MJ and Landry A, 2019, ‘Accounting for real exchange rates using micro-data’, Journal of International Money and Finance, March 2019, Vol. 91, 86-100.
Hoffmann M and Stewen I, ‘Holes in the dike: The global savings glut, U.S. house prices and the long shadow of banking deregulation„ Journal of the European Economic Association (forthcoming) (CAMA WP 06/2016).
Jacob P, Uuskula L, ‘Deep habits and exchange rate pass-through’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (forthcoming) (CAMA WP 17/2016).
• Shibata A, Shintani M and Tsuruga T, 2019, ‘Current account dynamics under information rigidity and imperfect capital mobility’, Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 92, April 2019, Pages 153-176.
• Smith C and Thoenissen C, 2019, ‘Skilled migration and business cycle dynamics’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 109 (CAMA WP 20,2018).
Tsuruga T and Wake S, 2019, ‘Money-financed fiscal stimulus: The effects of implementation lag’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, forthcoming

Book and book chapter

Commodities and the Macroeconomy program

Kamiar Mohaddes, Jeffrey B. Nugent, and Hoda Selim (eds.), Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies, Oxford University Press.
• El-Anshasy A, Mohaddes K, and Nugent JB, ‘Oil, Volatility and Institutions: Cross-Country Evidence from Major Oil Producers’ in Kamiar Mohaddes, Jeffrey B. Nugent, and Hoda Selim (eds.), Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies, Oxford University Press.
Mohaddes K, Nugent JB, and Selim S, ‘Objectives, Issues, and Findings’ in Kamiar Mohaddes, Jeffrey B. Nugent, and Hoda Selim (eds.), Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies, Oxford University Press.
Mohaddes K, Nugent JB, and Selim S, ‘Reforming Fiscal Institutions in Resource-Rich Arab Economies: Policy Proposals’in Kamiar Mohaddes, Jeffrey B. Nugent, and Hoda Selim (eds.), Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies, Oxford University Press.

Finance and the Macroeconomy program

Kose MA and Ohnsorge F, 2019, ‘A Decade After the Global Recession : Lessons and Challenges for Emerging and Developing Economies’. Washington, DC: World Bank.

Globalisation and Trade program

Akhtaruzzaman M, 2019, ‘International Capital Flows and the Lucas Paradox - Patterns, Determinants, and Debates’, Springer.

Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program

• Froyen RT and Guender AV eds., 2019. Optimal monetary policy under uncertainty. Edward Elgar Publishing.

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