Publications 2019

Publications

Behavioural Macroeconomics and Complexity program

• Cohen SN, Henckel T, Menzies GD, Muhle-Karbe J, Zizzo DJ, 2019, ‘Switching cost models as hypothesis tests’. Economics Letters (forthcoming). (CAMA WP 40/2018).
• Henckel T, Menzies G, Moffatt P and Zizzo D, 2019, ‘Three Dimensions of Central Bank Credibility and Inferential Expectations: The Euro Zone’. Journal of Macroeconomics (forthcoming).
• McDonald IM, 2019, ‘The economics of ageing-what do you face?’, Australian Economic Review, 52, 4, 496-506.
• McDonald IM, 2019, ‘John Maynard Keynes, Joan Robinson and the prospect theory approach to money wage determination’, Metroeconomica, 70, 1, 45-67.

Climate Change and Energy program

• Al Irsyad MI, Halog A, Nepal R, 2019, ‘Estimating the impacts of financing support policies towards photovoltaic market in Indonesia: A social-energy-economy-environment model simulation’, Journal of Environmental Management, 230 pp. 464-473. ISSN 0301-4797 (CAMA WP 02/2019).
• Al Irsyad MI, Nepal R, Nepal SK, 2019, ‘Tourist arrivals, energy consumption and pollutant emissions in a developing economy-implications for sustainable tourism’, Tourism Management, 72 pp. 145-154. ISSN 0261-5177 (CAMA WP 03/2019).
• Best R, Burke P and Jotzo F, 2019, ‘Closures of coal‐fired power stations in Australia: Local unemployment effects’, Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 62(1), 142–165.
• Burke P, Liao H and Teng M, 2019, ‘The demand for coal among China’s rural households: Estimates of price and income elasticities’, Energy Economics 80, 928–936.
• Burke PJ and Siyaranamual MD, 2019, ‘No one left behind in Indonesia?’ Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies 55(3), 269–293. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00074918.2019.1690410.
• Gregory KB and Lang PA, 2019, ‘Economic impact of energy comsumption change caused by global warming’. Energies 2019, 12(18), 3575.
• Halog A, Indra M and Nepal R, 2019, ‘Renewable Energy Projections for Climate Change Mitigation: An Analysis of Uncertainty and Errors’, Renewable Energy, Vol. 130, pp. 536-546, 2019 (CAMA WP 74/2017).
• Janda K and Kristoufek L, 2019, ‘The Relationship between Fuel and Food Prices: Methods and Outcomes’. Annual Review of Resource Economics 2019, vol. 11, pp. 195-216.
• Nepal R and Paija N, 2019, ‘Energy security, electricity, population and economic growth: the case of a developing South Asian resource-rich economy’, Energy Policy, 132, (September) pp. 771-781. ISSN 0301-4215.
• Nepal R and Paija N, 2019, ‘A Multivariate Time Series Analysis of Energy Consumption, Real output and Pollutant Emissions in a Developing Economy: New Evidence from Nepal’, Economic Modelling, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.05.023.
• Nguyen J and Valadkhani A, 2019, ‘Long-run effects of disaggregated renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on real output’, Applied Energy. Accepted 27 August 2019.
• Nguyen J, Smyth R and Valadkhani A, 2019, ‘Effects of primary energy consumption on CO2 emissions under optimal thresholds: Evidence from sixty countries over the last half century’, Energy Economics, 80, 680-690.
• Perdana S and Tyers R, 2019, ‘Global climate change mitigation: strategic incentives’, The Energy Journal, forthcoming (CAMA WP 10/2018).

Commodities and the Macroeconomy program

• Jarrett U, Mohaddes K and Mohtadi H, 2019, ‘Oil Price Volatility, Financial Institutions and Economic Growth’, Energy Policy 126, pp. 131–144.
• Nguyen BH and Tatsuyoshi O, 2019, ‘Asymmetric Reactions of the U.S. Natural Gas Market and Economic Activity’. Energy Economics 80, 86-99.

Finance and the Macroeconomy program

• Arin K, Caporale GM, Kyriacou K and Spagnolo N (2019) ‘Financial Integration in the GCC Region: Market Size versus National Effects’ forthcoming in Open Economies Review.
• Arin K, Fees E, Kuhlenkasper T and Reich O (2019) ‘Negotiating with terrorists: Costs of compliance’ Southern Economic Journal, 2019, 86(1), 305-317.
• Abeln B, Jacobs JPAM and Ouwehand P, 2019, CAMPLET: ‘Seasonal adjustment without revisions’. Journal of Business Cycle Research (forthcoming). doi.org/10.1007/s41549-018-0031-3.
• Anbarci N, Arin KP and Zenker C, 2019, ‘Tennis serve data may elude some as serves get too fast’, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 16(1), pages 124“-29-1, March.
• Bjørnland HC, Thorsrud LA and Torvik R, 2019. “Dutch disease dynamics reconsidered,” European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 411-433. (CAMA WP 55/2019).
• Boschi M and d’Addona S, 2019, The stability of tax elasticities over the business cycle in European countries, Fiscal Studies, 10.1111/1475-5890.12184, (forthcoming).
• Bowden M, Nguyen J and Valadkhani A, 2019, ‘Pathways to reduce CO2 emissions as countries proceed through stages of economic development’, Energy Policy (forthcoming).
• Brooks R, Padungsaksawasdi C, Treepongkaruna S, 2019, ‘Investor attention and stock market activities: New evidence from Panel Data’, International Journal of Financial Studies, accepted 10 June 2019.
• Chiew D, Qiu J, Shi C, Treepongkaruna S and Yang J, 2019, ‘The predictive ability of the expected utility-entropy based fund rating approach: A comparison investigation with Morningstar ratings in US’, PLOS One, accepted 11 April 2019.
• Clare A, Seaton J, Smith PN and Thomas S, 2019, ‘Can Sustainable Withdrawal Rates be Enhanced by Trend Following?’, International Journal of Finance and Economics, forthcoming.
• Dungey M, Hurn S, Shi S and Volkov V, 2019, ‘Information flow in times of crisis: The case of the European banking and sovereign sectors’, Econometrics (Special Issue Celebrated Econometricians: Peter Phillips), 2019, 7(1), 5; doi:10.3390/econometrics7010005
• Goldewijk GMK, Jacobs JPAM, Jongman WM, 2019, ‘Health and Wealth in the Roman Empire’. Economics and Human Biology (forthcoming). doi.org/10.1016/j.ehb.2019.01.005.
• Greenwood-Nimmo MJ, Huang J and Nguyen VH, 2019, ‘Financial sector bailouts, sovereign bailouts, and the transfer of credit risk’, Journal of Financial Markets (forthcoming).
• Hajargasht G, Nguyen J and Valadkhani A, 2019, ‘Incorporating daily market uncertainty data into a conventional short-run dynamic model: The case of the black-market exchange rate in Iran’, Applied Economics (forthcoming).
• Hajargasht G, Rao DSP and Valadkhani A, 2019, ‘Reliability of basic heading PPPs’, Economics Letters (forthcoming).
• Hindrayanto I, Jacobs JPAM, Osborn DR and Tian J, 2019, ‘Trend-cycle-seasonal interactions: identification and estimation’. Macroeconomic Dynamics (forthcoming). doi: 10.1017/S1365100517001092.
• Hurn S, Phillips PCB, and Shi S, 2019, ‘Causal change detection in possibly integrated systems: Revisiting the money-income relationship’, Journal of Financial Econometrics (forthcoming).
• Hurn S, Phillips PCB, and Shi S, 2019, ‘Change detection and the causal impact of the yield curve’, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 2018, 39(6): 966-987. Online Supplement.
• Jacobs JPAM, Haan L and Panjer N, 2019, Is fiscal policy in the euro area Ricardian? Empirica. doi/org/10.1007/s10663-019-09431-y.
• Jiraporn P, Jumreornvong S, Prommin P and Treepongkaruna S, 2019, ‘The effects of ownership concentration and corporate governance on corporate risk-taking: The case of Thailand’, Accounting Research Journal, accepted 22 April 2019.
• Kang W, Perez de Gracia F, Ratti RA, 2019, ‘The asymmetric response of gasoline prices to oil price shocks and policy uncertainty’, Energy Economics 77, 66-79.
• Kyaw K, Nygaard M F, Stensås A, Treepongkaruna S, 2019, ‘Can Bitcoin be a diversifier, hedge or safe haven tool?’, Cogent Economics & Finance, Accepted manuscript (8 March 2019), 1593072. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2019.1593072.
• Laurent S and Shi S, 2019, ‘Volatility estimation and jump detection for drift-diffusion processes’, Journal of Econometrics (fortcoming).
• Lim A, Lan Y and Treepongkaruna S, 2019, ‘Asset pricing and energy consumption risk’, Accounting and Finance, accepted 19 May 2019.
• Nguyen J, Smyth R and Valadkhani A, 2019, ‘Effects of primary energy consumption on CO2 emissions under optimal thresholds: Evidence from sixty countries over the last half century’, Energy Economics, 80, 680-690.
• O’Brien, Nguyen J and Valadkhani A, 2019, ‘Asymmetric responses of house prices to changes in the mortgage interest rate: Evidence from the Australian capital cities’, Applied Economics (forthcoming).
• Okimoto T, 2019, ‘Trend Inflation and Monetary Policy Regimes in Japan’. Journal of International Money and Finance 92, 137-152.
• Oldani C, 2019, ‘On the perils of structured loans financing in France and Italy’, Global Policy, vol. 10, ISSN: 1758-5899, doi: 10.1111/1758-5899.12686.
• Phillips PCB and Shi S, 2019, ‘Detecting financial collapse and ballooning sovereign risk’, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (forthcoming).
• Pontines V and Siregar RY, 2019, ‘Non-core liabilities and interest rate pass-through: bank-level evidence from Indonesia’, Applied Economics, Vol. 51, Issue No. 25 (CAMA WP 78/2017).
• Ratti RA and Vespignani J, 2019, ‘What drives global Policy/official interest rate?’, Applied Economics 51, 5185-5190, 2019.
• Ratti RA and Vespignani J, 2019, ‘Impact of Global Uncertainty on the Global Economy and Large Developed and Developing Economies’, Applied Economics (forthcoming).
• Ravazzolo F and Vespignani J, 2019, ‘World Steel Production: a new indicator of monthly real economic activity’, Canadian Journal of Economics (forthcoming).

Growth, Demographics and Productivity program

• Breunig R and Majeed O, 2019, ‘Inequality, poverty and economic growth’, International Economics. doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2019.11.005 (CAMA WP 43/2016)
• Hong k, Hosoe M, Ju B-G and Yakita A, eds, ‘Contemporary issues in applied economics: Ten years of international academic exchanges between JAAE and KAAE’, Springer nature, Switzerland, 2019.
• Mayhew K and Wills S, ‘Inequality: an assessment’, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume 35, Issue 3, Autumn 2019, Pages 351–367, https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grz009.
• McGregor T, Smith B, Wills S, ‘Measuring inequality, Oxford Review of Economic Policy’, Volume 35, Issue 3, Autumn 2019, Pages 368–395, https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grz015.
• Yakita A (2019) ‘Optimal long-term care policy in an intergenerational exchange setting’. Research in Economics 73, 321-328.

Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program

• Debortoli D, Kim J, Lindé J and Nunes R, 2019, ‘Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks: Does a Dual Mandate Make Sense?’, The Economic Journal, Volume 129, Issue 621, July 2019, Pages 2010–2038, https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12630.
• Eo Y and Lie D, 2019, ‘The Role of Inflation Target Adjustment in Stabilization Policy’, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (forthcoming).
• Gunarsa S, Makin A and Rohde N, 2019, ‘Public Debt in Asia: a Help or Hindrance to Growth?’ Applied Economics Letters (forthcoming).
• Hall VB and McDermott CJ (2019), ‘Changes in New Zealand’s Business Insolvency Rates after the GFC’, New Zealand Economic Papers, published online 18 December 2019, https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2019.1703792.
• Janku J, Libich J, ‘Ignorance isn’t bliss: Uninformed voters drive budget cycles.’ Journal of Public Economics (forthcoming). (CAMA WP 2/2018).
• Kawamura K, Kobashi Y, Shizume M and Ueda K, ‘Strategic Central Bank Communication: Discourse Analysis of the Bank of Japan’s Monthly Report,’ Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 100, 230-250, 2019.
• Kim J and Ruge‐Murcia F, 2019, “Extreme events and optimal monetary policy’. International Economic Review, 60: 939-963. doi:10.1111/iere.12372.
• Libich J, 2019, ‘Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic: Macroprudential Edition’, Economic Record (forthcoming).
• Makin A, 2019, ‘Lessons for Macroeconomic Policy from the Global Financial Crisis’, Economic Analysis and Policy (forthcoming).
• Makin A, Pearce J and Ratnasiri S, 2019, ‘The Optimal Size of Government in Australia’ Economic Analysis and Policy 62, 27-36.
• Miranda‐Pinto J and Shen Y, 2019, ‘A Granular View of the Australian Business Cycle’. Econ Rec. doi:10.1111/1475-4932.12495.
• Oikawa K and Ueda K, ‘Short- and Long-Run Tradeoff of Monetary Easing’, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 52, 189-200, 2019.
• Ueda K, Watanabe K, and Watanabe T, ‘Product turnover and the cost of living index: Quality vs. fashion effects’, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 11(2), 310-347, 2019.

Macroeconomic Theory program

• Miranda-Pinto J and Young ER, 2019, ‘Comparing dynamic multisector models’, Economics Letters, Volume 181, 2019, Pages 28-32.

Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics program

• Albonico A, Paccagnini A and Tirelli P, 2019, ‘Limited Asset Market Participation and the Euro Area Crisis. An Empirical DSGE Model, Economic Inquiry (forthcoming).
• Cardani R, Paccagnini A and Villa S, 2019, ‘Forecasting with instabilities: An application to DSGE models with financial frictions’, Journal of Macroeconomics (forthcoming).
• Eo Y and Kang KH, ‘The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy on Forecasting the Yield Curve’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, (forthcoming).
• Garratt A, Vahey SP, Zhang Y, 2019, ‘Real-time forecast combinations for the oil price’. Journal of Applied Econometrics, forthcoming (CAMA WP 38/2018).
• Mamertino M and Sinclair T, ‘Migration and online job search: A gravity model approach’, Economics Letters, Volume 181, August 2019, Pages 51-53.
• Masolo RM and Paccagnini A, ‘Identifying Noise Shocks: a VAR with Data Revisions’, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (forthcoming).
• Morley J and Wong B, 2019, ‘Estimating and accounting for the output gap with large Bayesian vector autoregressions’, Journal of Applied Econometrics, forthcoming (CAMA WP 46/2017).
• Paccagnini A, 2019, Did financial factors matter during the Great Recession?, Economics Letters, Volume 174, January 2019, Pages 26-30.
• Sinclair T, 2019, Characteristics and implications of Chinese macroeconomic data revisions on ‘Forecasting Issues in Developing Economies’ in the International Journal of Forecasting (forthcoming).

Multi-Country Models and Methods program

• Asano A and Tyers R, 2019, ‘Japan’s oligopolies: potential economy-wide gains from structural reforms’, Economic Modelling (forthcoming).
• Fujiwara I, Kam T and Sunakawa T, 2019, ‘Sustainable international monetary policy cooperation’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 106, 103721, ISSN 0165-1889, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2019.103721.
• Lee J-W and McKibbin WJ, 2019, ‘Korean unification: Economic adjustments under German assumptions’, Asian Economic Policy Review 14, 1-20.
• Neill K, Hartley P, Tyers R and Adams P, 2019, ‘Western Australia’s domestic gas reservation policy: modelling the economic impact with a CGE approach’, The Economic Record, DOI: 10.1111/1475-4932.12459 (forthcoming).

Open Economy Macroeconomics program

• Benedict C, Crucini MJ and Landry A, 2019, ‘On what states do prices depend? Answers from Ecuador (forthcoming) (CAMA WP 51 /2016).
• Comunale M, 2019, ‘Long-run determinants and misalignments of the real effective exchange rate in the EU’, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, vol.66, issue 5, Pages 649-672. https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12206.
• Crucini MJ and Landry A, 2019, ‘Accounting for real exchange rates using micro-data’, Journal of International Money and Finance, March 2019, Vol. 91, 86-100.
• Hoffmann M and Stewen I, ‘Holes in the dike: The global savings glut, U.S. house prices and the long shadow of banking deregulation„ Journal of the European Economic Association (forthcoming) (CAMA WP 06/2016).
• Jacob P, Uuskula L, ‘Deep habits and exchange rate pass-through’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (forthcoming) (CAMA WP 17/2016).
• Shibata A, Shintani M and Tsuruga T, 2019, ‘Current account dynamics under information rigidity and imperfect capital mobility’, Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 92, April 2019, Pages 153-176.
• Smith C and Thoenissen C, 2019, ‘Skilled migration and business cycle dynamics’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 109 (CAMA WP 20,2018).
• Tsuruga T and Wake S, 2019, ‘Money-financed fiscal stimulus: The effects of implementation lag’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, forthcoming

Book and book chapter

Commodities and the Macroeconomy program

• Kamiar Mohaddes, Jeffrey B. Nugent, and Hoda Selim (eds.), Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies, Oxford University Press.
• El-Anshasy A, Mohaddes K, and Nugent JB, ‘Oil, Volatility and Institutions: Cross-Country Evidence from Major Oil Producers’ in Kamiar Mohaddes, Jeffrey B. Nugent, and Hoda Selim (eds.), Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies, Oxford University Press.
• Mohaddes K, Nugent JB, and Selim S, ‘Objectives, Issues, and Findings’ in Kamiar Mohaddes, Jeffrey B. Nugent, and Hoda Selim (eds.), Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies, Oxford University Press.
• Mohaddes K, Nugent JB, and Selim S, ‘Reforming Fiscal Institutions in Resource-Rich Arab Economies: Policy Proposals’in Kamiar Mohaddes, Jeffrey B. Nugent, and Hoda Selim (eds.), Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies, Oxford University Press.

Finance and the Macroeconomy program

• Kose MA and Ohnsorge F, 2019, ‘A Decade After the Global Recession : Lessons and Challenges for Emerging and Developing Economies’. Washington, DC: World Bank.

Globalisation and Trade program

• Akhtaruzzaman M, 2019, ‘International Capital Flows and the Lucas Paradox - Patterns, Determinants, and Debates’, Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-9069-2.