CAMA RBA Shadow Board

On the first Tuesday of every month (except in January) the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets to decide on a target for the cash rate. This decision is highly significant for the wider economy and is therefore closely monitored by the financial markets. The CAMA RBA Shadow Board, consisting of nine voting members and one non-voting chair, all distinguished macroeconomists, offers its own policy recommendation on the Monday before the official RBA decision. Members give probabilistic assessments of the appropriate target rate for each round, which are then aggregated. The higher the percentage attached to a given cash rate, the greater the confidence that this rate is the appropriate target.

For questions regarding the CAMA RBA Shadow Board, please contact Dr Timo Henckel. If you wish to access the database of past voting records for research purposes, please contact cama.admin@anu.edu.au.

February
2018

Favourable Economic Data Suggests Interest Rates Will Not Remain Low for Much Longer

Domestic CPI inflation rose slightly from 1.8% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2017 to 1.9% in the fourth quarter, still below the Reserve Bank of Australia’s official target band 2-3%. Otherwise favourable economic data, both domestic and overseas, has convinced the RBA Shadow Board that there is no chance a further reduction in interest rates could be called for. Instead, it attaches a 63% probability that holding interest rates steady at 1.5% is the appropriate setting, while the confidence in a required rate hike equals 37%. Looking to mid- and end-year there is a slight shift in the Board’s assessment in favour of higher interest rates.

Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 5.5% in December, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, after a near five-year low of 5.4%. This is attributable to an increase in the participation rate from 65.5% to 65.7%, as there was solid growth in employment, both full-time and part-time. The latest figures still put nominal wages growth at 2%. The sustained weak real wage growth increasingly becomes a problem as economic growth is not generating additional purchasing power, and thus consumption demand, for a large section of the population. It is also leaves household balance sheets vulnerable in light of their high leverage.

The Aussie dollar, relative to the US dollar, appreciated significantly, to above 80 US¢, largely reflecting the US dollar’s weakness as opposed to the Aussie dollar’s strength. Predicting forex markets is notoriously difficult but with increasing signs that domestic interest rates will likely rise this year, a range of 77-83 US¢ seems reasonable. Yields on Australian 10-year government bonds have passed their nadir of 2.5% in December and climbed to above 2.8% in the successive months, suggesting that the markets are beginning to expect interest rates to rise in the medium term. The local stock is being buoyed by the strength of global stock markets, the S&P/ASX 200 stock index’s settling well above 6100, its highest since the global financial crisis.

Global growth in 2017 unexpectedly turned out higher than anticipated, and the World Bank revised its growth forecast for 2018 upward, to 3.1%. The IMF is even more optimistic, expecting the world economy to grow 3.9% in 2018 and 2019. These numbers are bolstered by favourable readings of key global economic data such as investment growth, trade growth, financial conditions, improvements in fiscal sustainability, etc. However, there clearly remain downside risks in the form of over-indebtedness, both public and private, and a reduction in the potential growth rate. Geopolitical tensions have thankfully subsided, at least for the moment. There remains a real risk of an abrupt correction to inflated asset prices worldwide and the concomitant economic disruptions.

Business indicators have improved noticeably: the NAB business confidence index, “the results from the Survey indicate that the business sector in Australia is, the AIG Performance of Manufacturing Index and the Services PMI all rising. Demand indicators add to the brighter picture, with the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment index improving, along with retail sales.

Building permits fell by 20% in December, a precipitous decline, and, coupled with other weakening data for the housing sector (new home sales, the housing index, the construction PMI) points to a cooling of the real estate markets in Australia’s major cities. This is by and large welcome news, as the record increases in house prices were unsustainable; however, a sustained severe contraction in the real estate sector could spill over to the other sectors and pose a threat for the overall economy. Australia’s economic fortunes in 2018 will in no small part depend on whether the real estate market is able to land softly or whether the correction will be violent.

Since the last round in December 2017, the distribution of the Shadow Board’s policy preferences is virtually unchanged. The Shadow Board is 63% confident that keeping interest rates on hold is the appropriate policy, 3% higher than two months ago. It attaches zero probability that a rate cut is appropriate (1% in December) and a 37% probability (39% in December) that a rate rise, to 1.75% or higher, is appropriate.

The probabilities at longer horizons are as follows: 6 months out, the estimated probability that the cash rate should remain at 1.50% equals 24%, one percentage point lower than December. The estimated need for an interest rate decrease is 5% (6% in December), while the probability attached to a required increase equals 71% (69% in December). A year out, the Shadow Board members’ confidence that the cash rate should be held steady equals 14% (17% in December), while the confidence in a required cash rate decrease equals 4% (8% in December), and in a required cash rate increase 81% (up 5% from December).

February
2018

No comment.

February
2018

With increasing evidence that the world economy is finally in full recovery mode the case for ultra-low rates is now non-existent. The RBA should begin rate normalisation as soon as possible, and two rate rises this year will not jeapordise the economy or lead to an overly strong exchange rate - which would be the only risk to moving too quickly on raising rates.

February
2018

No comment.

February
2018

No comment.

February
2018

No comment.

February
2018

No comment.

February
2018

The Australian economy is steadily improving, particularly in the business sector with real business investment starting to contribute to growth, which should be sustained through 2018 by the strengthening global economy. Inflation remains below the RBA’s target range of 2-3%, with wages hardly responding to the apparent gradual tightening in labour markets due to persistent structural trends in those markets. House price inflation has eased in response to recent tighter macroprudential regulation of housing finance. This is good insofar as that inflation was due to speculation and not to a fundamental excess demand for housing services - however a concern is that dwelling approvals have fallen sharply in December 2017, which should moderate future supply if this fall persists. In the current scenario, there is no need to change the cash rate. Should wages and thus price inflation begin to move significantly later this year or in 2019, a cash rate response may become necessary.

Updated:  31 August 2017/Responsible Officer:  Crawford Engagement/Page Contact:  CAMA admin