Publications 2016

2016

Climate Change and Energy program

• Arora V, Cai Y and Jones A, ‘The national and international impacts of coal-to-gas switching in the Chinese power sector’. Energy Economics.
• Bernstein P, Cai Y, Huntington HG, Hupman D, Tuladhar S and Yeh S, ‘North American natural gas and energy markets in transition: insights from global models’. Energy Economics.
Burke PJ (2016). ‘Undermined by adverse selection: Australia’s Direct Action abatement subsidies.’ Economic Papers 35(3): 216–229.
Burke PJ and Csereklyei Z (2016). ‘Understanding the energy-GDP elasticity: A sectoral approach.’ Energy Economics 58: 199–210.
Burke PJ and Yang H (2016). ‘The price and income elasticities of natural gas demand: International evidence.’ Energy Economics 59: 466–474.
Cai Y, Finnigan JJ, Harman IN, Newth D and Porfirio LL, ‘Patterns of crop cover under future climates’. Ambio.
• Csereklyei Z, Rubio Varas MDM and Stern DI (2016), ‘Energy and economic growth: The stylized facts’, Energy Journal 37(2), 223-255.
• Filip O, Janda K, Kristoufek L and Zilberman D, ‘Dynamics and Evolution of the Role of Biofuels in Global Commodity and Financial Markets.’ Nature Energy, article number 16169, November 2016, 9 pages.
Grafton RQ and Kerr S (2016), Comment: Future directions for Australasian environmental economics. Aust J Agric Resour Econ, 60: 688–691. doi:10.1111/1467-8489.12187.
• Halkos GE, Stern DI, and Tzeremes NG (2016), ‘Population, economic growth and regional environmental inefficiency: Evidence from U.S. states’,Journal of Cleaner Production 112(5), 4288-4295.
• Kristoufek L, Janda K and Zilberman D. ‘Comovements of Ethanol Related Prices: Evidence from Brazil and the USA.’ Global Change Biology (GCB) Bioenergy 2016, no. 2 vol. 8, pp. 346-356.
McKibbin W (2016), Comment 1 on ‘Climate change policy and energy transition’ by Fisher. Aust J Agric Resour Econ, 60: 706–707. doi:10.1111/1467-8489.12188

Commodities and the Macroeconomy program

Baffes J and Etienne X (2016). ‘Analyzing food price trends in the context of Engel’s Law and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis.’ Oxford Economic Papers, forthcoming.
• Bremer TVD, Ploeg, FVD and Wills S (2016), ‘The Elephant In The Ground: Managing Oil And Sovereign Wealth’, European Economic Review , Volume 82, February 2016, Pages 113–131.
Mohaddes K and Pesaran H. ‘Country-Specific Oil Supply Shocks and the Global Economy: A Counterfactual Analysis’. Energy Economics, volume 59, September 2016, pages 382–399.
• Ohashi K and Okimoto T (2016). ‘Increasing Trends in the Excess Comovements of Commodity Prices.’ Journal of Commodity Markets, forthcoming.
• Senbert LW, Simbanegavi W, Wills S, Sovereign Wealth Funds and Natural Resource Management in Africa, Journal of African Economies, 28 October 2016.
Stoeckel A (2016), Comment 2 on ‘Booming sector economics’ by Freebairn. Aust J Agric Resour Econ, 60: 649–650. doi:10.1111/1467-8489.12186.
• Venables AJ and Wills S , ‘Resource Funds: Stabilising, Parking, and Inter-generational Transfer’, Journal of African Economies, 2016, pp. 1–21

Finance and the Macroeconomy program

• Abhakorn P, Smith PN and Wickens MR, ‘Can stochastic discount factor models explain the cross section of equity returns?’, Review of Financial Economics, 2016.
• Armstrong S and Okimoto T, ‘Fiscal Sustainability in Japan’, forthcoming in Asia and the Public Policy Studies.
• Bohl M, Michaelis P and Siklos P (forthcoming), ‘Austerity and Recovery: Exchange Rate Regime Choice, Economic Growth and Financial Crises’. Economic Modelling.
• Cabrera M, Dwyer GP and Samartín M, ‘Government Finances and Bank Bailouts: Evidence from European Stock Markets’, Journal of Empirical Finance, 39 (December 2016), 169-79.
• Clare A, Seaton J, Smith PN and Thomas S, ‘The trend is our friend: global asset allocation using trend following’, Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 2016.
• Clare A, Seaton J, Smith PN and Thomas S, ‘Size matters: tail risk, momentum and trend following in international equity portfolios’, Journal of Investing, 2016.
De Veirman E and Levin A, ‘Cyclical Changes in Firm Volatility’, forthcoming in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
• Devereux J and Dwyer GP, ‘What Determines Output Losses after Banking Crises?, Journal of International Money and Finance, 69 (December 2016), 69-94.
• Elhorst, J Paul, Heijnen P, Jan PAM and Samarina A (forthcoming). ‘Transitions at different moments in time: a spatial probit approach’,Journal of Applied Econometrics.
• Glover KJ and Hambusch G, ‘Leveraged investments and agency conflicts when cash flows are mean reverting’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, forthcoming.
• Hambusch G and Shaffer S(2016), ‘Forecasting Bank Leverage: An Alternative to Regulatory Early Warning Models, Journal of Regulatory Economics 50, 38-69.
Jacobs, Jan PAM. and Simon van Norden (forthcoming), ‘Why are Initial Estimates of Productivity Growth so Unreliable?’,Journal of Macroeconomics.
• Kang W, Ratti RA and Vespignani JL, 2016, ‘The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the U.S. Stock Market: A Note on the Roles of U.S. and non‐U.S. Oil Production’, Economics Letters 145, 176-181.
• Kang W, Ratti RA and Vespignani JL, 2016, ‘Chinese liquidity increases and the U.S. economy’,Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 764-771.
• Kang, W., Ratti, RA., Yoon, KH, ‘Time-Varying Effect of Oil Market Shocks on the Stock Market’,Journal of Banking and Finance, forthcoming.
• Karagedikli O, Ryan M, Steenkamp D and Vehbi T (2016), ‘What happens when the Kiwi flies? Sectoral effects of exchange rate shocks on the New Zealand economy’, Economic Modelling, Volume 52, Part B, January 2016, (CAMA WP 73/2013).
Kulish M and Pagan A (2016) ‘Estimation and Solution of Models with Expectations and Structural Changes’. J. Appl. Econ., doi: 10.1002/jae.2527.(CAMA WP 15/2014)
• Lütkepohl H and Milunovich G (2016) ‘Testing for Identification in SVAR-GARCH Models’ Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 73, 241-258.
Milunovich G and Yang M, ‘Simultaneous Equation Systems with Heteroskedasticity: Identification, Estimation, and Stock Price Elasticities’, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, forthcoming.
• O’Mahony B, Smyth R and Valadkhani A (2016), ‘Asymmetric causality between Australian inbound and outbound tourism flows’, Applied Economics.
Ratti, RA and Vespignani JL, 2016, Oil prices and global factor macroeconomic variables, Energy Economics 59, 198-212.
Ratti, RA and Vespignani JL, 2016, ‘Not all international monetary shocks are alike for the Japanese economy’,Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 822-837.
• Roshdi I, Smyth R and Valadkhani A (2016), ‘A Multiplicative Environmental DEA approach to measure efficiency changes in the world’s major polluters’, Energy Economics.
Shaffer S and Shahi C (forthcoming), ‘CAPM and the Changing Distribution of Historical Returns’, Applied Economics Letters.
Shaffer S and Zuniga B (2016), ‘Consumer Debt and Unemployment’,Applied Economics Letters 23 (17).
• Shi S, Smyth R, Vahid F and Valadkhani A,(2016), ‘Dating the Timeline of House Price Bubbles in Australian Capital Cities, Economic Record’.
• Smyth R and Valadkhani A(2016), ‘The Effects of the Motor Vehicle Industry on Employment and Research Innovation in Australia’,International Journal of Manpower.
• Smyth R and Valadkhani A(2016) ‘Self-Exciting Effects of House Prices on Unit Prices in Australian Capital Cities’, Urban Studies.
• Smyth R, Valadkhani A and Worthington A, (2016) ‘Regional Seasonality in Australian House and Apartment Price Returns’, Regional Studies.
• Tantaopas P, Padungsaksawasdi C and Treepongkaruna S, 2016, ‘Attention Effect via Internet Search Intensity in Asia-Pacific Stock Markets,’ Pacific Basin Finance Journal.

Growth, Demographics and Productivity program

Alpaslan B. ‘Are Human and Social Capital Linked? Evidence from India’, Metroeconomica. DOI:10.1111/meca.12147
Day C (2016), ‘Can Theory Explain the Evidence on Fertility Decline Reversal?’ Australian Economic Review 49(2): 136-45
Day C (2016), ‘Non-scale Endogenous Growth with R&D and Human Capital’, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 63(5): 443-467.
Day C (2016), ‘Fertility and economic growth: the role of workforce skill composition and child care prices’, Oxford Economic Papers 68 (2) pp. 546-565.
Day C and Guest R (2016), ‘Fertility and female wages: A new link via house prices’, Economic Modelling, February 2016 53, 121-132.
Kudrna G (2016) “Economy-Wide Effects of Means-Tested Pensions: The Case of Australia”, Journal of the Economics of Ageing 7, 17-29.
Kudrna G, Tran C, and Woodland A (forthcoming) “Facing Demographic Challenges: Pension Cuts or Tax Hikes?”, Macroeconomic Dynamics.
• Pyun J and Lee JW, ‘Does Trade Integration Contribute to Peace?’, Review of Development Economics 20(1), 2016.
• Lee H and Lee JW, ‘Human Capital in the Long Run’, Journal of Development Economics, 122, September 2016.

Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program

• Bai Q, Makin AJ and Zhang Z, ‘Yen Internationalization and Japan’s International Reserves’, Economic Modelling, 52(1), 452-466, 2016.
Dennis R and Kirsanova T, ‘Equilibrium Coordination with Discretionary Policymaking’, The Economic Journal, forthcoming.
Libich J and Machacek M (forthcoming), ‘Insurance by Government or against Government? Overview of Public Risk Management Policies’, Journal of Economic Surveys.
• Froyen RT and Guender AV, ‘What to Aim for? The Choice of an Inflation Objective when Openness Matters’, Open Economies Review, forthcoming.
Makin AJ, ‘Has Excessive Public Debt Slowed World Growth?’, World Economics 16 (4), 115-130, 2015.
Makin AJ and Pearce J (2016), ‘Fiscal Consolidation and Australia’s Public Debt’ Australian Journal of Public Administration, forthcoming.
• Mariotti F, Mumford KA and Pena-Boquete Y, ‘Education, Job Insecurity and the Within Country Migration of Couples’ forthcoming IZA Journal of Migration.
• Mariotti F, Dixon M, Mumford KA and Pena-Boquete Y, ‘Job Insecurity Within the Household: Are Australian Householders Caring when it Comes to Risk Sharing?’ forthcoming Australian Journal of Labour Economics.

Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics program

Eo Y and Kim CJ, ‘Markov-Switching Models with Evolving Regime-Specific Parameters: Are Post-War Booms or Recessions All Alike?’, Review of Economics and Statistics, 98(5), December 2016.
• Garratt A, Lee K and Shields K (2016), ‘Information rigidities and the news-adjusted output gap’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 70, September 2016, Pages 1–17.
• Müller-Dröge HC, Sinclair TM, Stekler HO (forthcoming), ‘Evaluating Forecasts of a Vector of Variables: a German Forecasting Competition’. Journal of Forecasting (CAMA WP 55/2014).

Macroeconomic Theory program

• Burda MC and Weder M (2016): ‘Payroll Taxes, Social Insurance and Business Cycles’, Journal of the European Economic Association 14, 438–467.
• De Abreu JABM, Maldonado WL, Tourinho OAF, ‘Cointegrated Periodically Collapsing Bubbles in the Exchange Rate of ‘BRICS’, Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, forthcoming( CAMA WP 34/2014).
• Moro A, Moleshi S and Tanaka S (2016), ‘Does home production drive structural transformation?’, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, forthcoming (CAMA WP 19/2016).
• Photphisutthiphong N and Weder M, 2017, ‘Observations on the Australian Business Cycle’, Journal of Business Cycle Research 12, 141–164.

Multi-Country Models and Methods program

McKibbin W (2016), ‘Macro Prudential Policy in an Australian Context’, Australian Economic Review, volume 49, no 1, pp86-88.
Tyers R (2016), ‘China and international macroeconomic interdependence’, The World Economy, 39(11): 1674-1702.
Tyers R (2016), ‘Slower growth and vulnerability to recession: updating China’s global impact’, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, in press, March.
Tyers R and A Walker (2016), ‘Quantifying Australia’s ‘three-speed’ boom’, Australian Economic Review, in press, January.

Open Economy Macroeconomics program

• Katagiri M, Kato R, and Tsuruga T, ‘Prudential Capital Controls or Bailouts? The Impact of Different Collateral Constraint Assumptions’, Economic Theory, forthcoming (CAMA WP 25/2014).
Kollmann R, ‘Discussion of ‘Financial Intermediation in a Global Environment’ by V. Nuguer’, International Journal of Central Banking, 2016, Vol. 12, pp.345-351.
Kollmann R, ‘International Business Cycles and Risk Sharing with Uncertainty Shocks and Recursive Preferences, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2016, Vol. 72, pp.115-124.
Kollmann R, Leeper E and Roeger W, ‘The Post-Crisis Slump’, European Economic Review, European Economic Review, 2016, Vol. 88, pp. 1-2.
Kollmann R, Pataracchia B, Raciborski R, Ratto M, Roeger W and Vogel L, ‘The Post-Crisis Slump in the Euro Area and the US: Evidence from an Estimated Three-Region DSGE Model’, European Economic Review, 2016, Vol. 88, pp. 21-41.
Kollmann R and Vogel L, ”Discussion of ‘Market Reforms in the Time of Imbalance’ by M. Cacciatore, R. Duval, G. Fiori and F. Ghironi’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2016, Vol. 72, pp. 94-97.
Kollmann R and Zeugner S, ‘Blanchard and Kahn’s (1980) Solution for a Linear Rational Expectations Model with One State Variable and One Jump Variable: the Correct Formula’, forthcoming, The Manchester School.

Books

Finance and the Macroeconomy program

Shaffer S, ‘Market Power: Competition among Measures,’ refereed chapter in Handbook of Competition in Banking and Finance, to be published by Edgar Elgar (J.A. Bikker and Laura Spierdijk, editors), forthcoming.
Shaffer S, ‘The Panzar-Rosse Revenue Test and Market Power in Banking: An Empirical Illustration,’ refereed chapter in Handbook of Competition in Banking and Finance, to be published by Edgar Elgar (J.A. Bikker and Laura Spierdijk, editors), forthcoming.

Multi-Country Models and Methods program

• Golley J, Tyers R and Zhou Y (2016), ‘Contractions in Chinese fertility and saving: long run domestic and global implications’, in I. Day and J. Simon (eds), Structural Change in China: Implications for Australia and the World, Proceedings of the April Conference of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Sydney, November: 243-280.
McKibbin W (2016) ‘The 2008 Global Financial Turmoil: an Inside-Policy View’, interview published in Jan Libich (2016) Real World Economic Policy: Insights from Leading Australian Economists, P250-278, Cengage Learning Melbourne.
Lee JW(2016), ‘Crisis and Recovery: Learning from the Asian Experience’, World Scientific.

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