Publications 2015

Behavioural Macroeconomics and Complexity program

• Chiarella C and Di Guilmi C. ‘Monetary Policy and Debt Deflation: Some Computational Experiments’, Macroeconomic Dynamics (forthcoming).

Climate Change and Energy program

Burke, Paul J. and Liao, Hua. 2015. ‘Is the price elasticity of demand for coal in China increasing?’, China Economic Review 36: 309–322.
Burke, Paul J., Shahiduzzaman, Md, and Stern, David I. 2015. ‘Carbon dioxide emissions in the short run: The rate and sources of economic growth matter.’ Global Environmental Change 33: 109–121.
Cai Y and McKibbin WJ (2015). Uncertainty and International Climate Change Negotiations, Italian Economic Journal, vol 1, no1, March Springer.
• Csereklyei Z. and D. I. Stern (2015) ‘Global energy use: Decoupling or convergence?’ Energy Economics 51, 633-641.
• Havranek T, Irsova Z, Janda K and Zilberman D. ‘Selective Reporting and the Social Cost of Carbon.’ Energy Economics 2015, vol. 51, pp. 394-406.
McKibbin WJ, Morris AC, Wilcoxen PJ, and Cai Y (2015). ‘Carbon Taxes and U.S. Fiscal Reform’, National Tax Journal, March 2015, 68(1), 139-156.
McKibbin WJ, Morris ACand Wilcoxen PJ (2015). ‘Pricing Cargon’ in COP21 in Paris: What to Expect - The Issues, the Actors, and the Road ahead on Climate Change. pp 14-18. The Brookings Institution, Washington DC.
McKibbin WJ and Weifeng L (2015), ‘China:Ambitious Targets ad Policies’ in COP21 in Paris: What to Expect - The Issues, the Actors, and the Road ahead on Climate Change. pp 48-52. The Brookings Institution, Washington DC.

Commodities and the Macroeconomy program

Wong B, ‘Do Inflation Expectations Propagate the Inflationary Impact of Real Oil Price Shocks?: Evidence from the Michigan Survey’ Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, forthcoming (CAMA WP 45/2014)

Economic Growth and Development program

Day C, Skill Composition, Fertility and Economic Growth Review of Income and Wealth, 61 (1), pp. 164-178. March 2015
Jha R and Kulkarni VS, ‘Inflation, its volatility and the inflation-growth tradeoff in India’. International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 10, Issue 3, 2015.
Jha R and Truong ND (2015). ‘Estimates of Trade Mis-invoicing and their Macroeconomic Outcomes for the Indian Economy’, Review of Economics and Finance, vol. 5, Issue 2, (forthcoming).

Finance and the Macroeconomy program

• Aadland D and Shaffer S, ‘Time Compression and Saving Rates’, Journal of Neuroscience, Psychology, and Economics (forthcoming; accepted August 2015).
Arin K, Helles P, Koyuncu M and Reich O, ‘Should we care about the composition of tax based stimulus packages’, Contemporary Economic Policy, forthcoming.
Arin K, Nandialath A, Huang V, Minniti M and Reich O, ‘The Economic Determinants of Entrepreneurial Activity: Evidence from a Bayesian Approach’,Journal of Management, 2015 (forthcoming).
Arin K, Koray F and Spagnolo N, ‘Fiscal Multipliers in Good Times and Bad Times’, Journal of Macroeconomics, 2015 (forthcoming).
• Boonman, TM, Jacobs JPAM and Kuper GH (2015). ‘Sovereign Debt Crises in Latin America: A Market Pressure Approach’.Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 51 Supplement 6, S80-S93.
Boschi M, Marzo M and Salotti S, ‘Domestic versus international determinants of European business cycles: a GVAR approach’, Empirical economics, 49(2), 403-421, September 2015 (CAMA WP 28/2013)
• Collender R and Shaffer S. ‘Rural Economic Performance and U.S. Federal Credit Programs’. The Journal of Rural and Community Development, 9(3), 42-61.
• De Haan L, Jacobs JPAM and Pool, Sebastiaan (2015). Loan loss provisioning, bank credit and the real economy. Journal of Macroeconomics, 45, 124-136.
Dungey, Mardi, an Jacobs JPAM and Lestano (2015). The internationalisation of financial crises: banking and currency crises 1883-2008. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 32, 29-47.
Dungey, Mardi, Jacobs JPAM, Tian j and Van Norden S (2015). ‘Trend in Cycle or Cycle in Trend? New Structural Identications for Unobserved Components Models of U.S. Real GDP’. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 19, 776-790.
Dwyer G, ‘The Economics of Bitcoin and Similar Private Digital Currencies’, Journal of Financial Stability, 2015 (forthcoming).
• Gregory, K., G. Hambusch. ‘Factors Driving Risk in the U.S. Banking Industry: The Role of Capital, Franchise value and Lobbying.’ International Journal of Managerial Finance, forthcoming (2015).
Hambusch, G., J. K. Hong, E. Webster. ‘Enhancing Risk-adjusted Return using Time Series Momentum in Souvereign Bonds.’ Journal of Fixed Income, forthcoming (2015).
• Hasan I, Shaffer S, and Zhou M. ‘New Small Firms and Dimensions of Economic Performance’. Economic Development Quarterly 29 (1), 2015, pages 65-78.
• Jacobs, Jac. J.W.M., Jan P.A.M. Jacobs, Eric van Sonderen, Thys van der Molen and Robbert Sanderman (2015). ‘Fracture diagnostics, unnecessary travel and treatment: A comparative study before and after the introduction of teleradiology in a remote general practice’. BMC Family Practice, 16:53.
Jacobs JPAM , Tassenaar v and Vols, M (2015). ‘Anti-social behaviour and European protection against eviction: An analysis of Dutch case law based on statistics’. International Journal of Law in the Built Environment, 7(2), 148-161
• Jing, Zhongbo, Jakob de Haan, Jan Jacobs and Haizhen Yang (2015). Identifying banking crises using money market pressure: New evidence for a large set of countries. Journal of Macroeconomics, 43, 1-20.
• Kang, W, Ratti, RA and Yoon, KH (2015). ‘The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Stock Market Return and Volatility Relationship’, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 34, 41-54. (CAMA WP 71/ 2014)
• Kishor NK and Morley J, ‘What Factors Drive the Price-Rent Ratio for the Housing Market? A Modified Present-Value Analysis’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, forthcoming.
• Li G and Shaffer S, ‘Reciprocal Brokered Deposits, Bank Risk, and Recent Deposit Insurance Policy,’ North American Journal of Economics and Finance, forthcoming.
• Lo, M, and Morley, J. ‘Bayesian Analysis of Nonlinear Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Purchasing Power Parity Persistence Puzzle’ in the Journal of International Money and Finance (forthcoming).
Morley, J and Singh A, ‘Inventory Shocks and the Great Moderation’,Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, forthcoming.
Morley, J, Panavska I, Sinclair T. ‘Testing Stationarity with Unobserved Components Models’ in Macroeconomic Dynamics (forthcoming).
Morley, J. “Macro-Finance Linkages” in Journal of Economic Surveys (forthcoming).
• Ohmi H and Okimoto T, ‘Trends in Stock-Bond Correlations’, Applied Economics (forthcoming).
• O’Mahony, B. and Valadkhani, A (2015), Dynamics of Australia’s Tourism in a Multimarket Context, Annals of Tourism Research, 55, 173-177. (5-Year Impact Factor=3.467) ABDC=A
Ratti, RA., and Vespignani, J.L., 2015.‘ Commodity Prices and BRIC and G3 Liquidity: A SFAVEC Approach’, Journal of Banking and Finance, 53 19-33. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037842661400394X
Ratti, RA., and Vespignani, J.L., 2015. ‘OPEC and non-OPEC Oil Production and the Global Economy’, Energy Economics (forthcoming). http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988314003053
Shaffer S and Spierdijk, ‘The Panzar-Rosse Revenue Test and Market Power in Banking’, Journal of Banking and Finance (forthcoming; accepted September 2015).
• Smith R and Valadkhani A.(2015), ‘Switching and Asymmetric Behaviour of the Okun Coefficient in the US: Evidence for the 1948-2015 Period’, Economic Modelling, 50, 281-290.
• Smyth, R.,** Valadkhani, A.**, and Vahid, F. (2015), Asymmetric Pricing of Diesel at Its Source, Energy Economics, 52, 183-194, (5-Year Impact Factor=3.521). ABDC=A*
Valadkhani, A. (2015), ‘Okun’s law in Australia’, Economic Record, in press (Accepted: 18 July 2015).
Xu, Y and La, H. A, 2015 (forthcoming), ‘Foreign Banks and International Shock Transmission: Does Bank Ownership Still Matter?’, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, DOI(10.1016/j.intfin.2015.05.006)
Xu, Y 2015 (forthcoming), ‘Review of: The Butterfly Defect: How Globalization Creates Systemic Risks, and What to Do about It’, by Ian Goldin and Mike Mariathasan (Princeton University Press, Princeton and Oxford, USA and UK, 2014), pp.320.”, The Economic Record.

Globalisation and Trade program

• Ito, T and Okubo, T (forthcoming) ‘The Impact of the Euro on the Quality of Trade: Evidence from the European Union’, The Manchester School
• Ito, T and Okubo, T (forthcoming) ‘Product Quality and Intra-industry Trade’, Singapore Economic Review
• Rehdanz, K, Welsch, H, Narita, D and Okubo, T. (2015) ‘Well-being Effects of a Major Natural Disaster: The Case of Fukushima’, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 116: pp.500-517.
• Schröder, C, Rehdanz, K, Narita, D and Okubo, T. (2015) ‘The Decline in Average Family Size and its Implications for the Average Benefits of Within‐household Sharing’, Oxford Economic Papers 67(3): pp.760-780.

Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program

• Afrouzi H, Coibion O, Gorodnichenko Y, and Kumar S, ‘Inflation targeting does not anchor inflation expectations: Evidence from firms in New Zealand,’ forthcoming in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.
• Froyen R and Guender AV, ‘Real-Exchange-Rate-Adjusted Inflation Targeting in an Open Economy: Some Analytical Results’, Economics Bulletin (forthcoming).
Guender AV and Tolan B, ‘The Predictive Ability of a Risk-Adjusted Yield Spread for Economic Activity in Europe’, European Journal of Economics (forthcoming).
Kumar S, ‘Is the U.S. Consumer Credit Asymmetric?’, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, forthcoming.
Libich, J. (2015), Real-World Economic Policy: Insights from Leading Australian Economists, Cengage Australia, 340pp
Libich, J. (2015), ‘The Economic Future of Europe: Change of Diet or Premature Death?’, World Economics, 15(4), pp73-103.
Libich, J. and Nguyen, D. (2015) ‘Strategic Monetary-Fiscal Interactions in a Downturn’, Economic Record, 91(293), pp172-190.
Libich, J., Nguyen, D. and Stehlik, P (2015) ‘Monetary Exit and Fiscal Spillovers’, European Journal of Political Economy, in press (CAMA WP 04/2011).
Makin, AJ. and Ratnasiri, S. (2015) ‘Competitiveness and Government Expenditure: The Australian Example’, Economic Modelling 49, 154-161.
Makin, AJ (2015) ‘Expansionary Versus Contractionary Government Spending’, Contemporary Economic Policy 33 (1), 56-65.
Teranishi Y (2015). ‘Smoothed Interest Rate Setting by Central Banks and Staggered Loan Contracts,’ Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(582), pages 162-183, 02.

Macroeconomic Theory program

• Furlanetto F and Groshenny N, ‘Mismatch shocks and unemployment during the Great Recession’ forthcoming in the Journal of Applied Econometrics (CAMA WP 17/2015).
• Guo J-T, Sirbu A and Weder M (2015): ‘News about Aggregate Demand and the Business Cycle’, Journal of Monetary Economics 72, 83-96.

Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics program

• Messina, JD., Sinclair TM, and Stekler HO (2015). ‘What Can We Learn from Revisions to the Greenbook Forecasts?’ forthcoming in the Journal of Macroeconomics.
• Wiriyawit V and Wong B ‘Structural VARs, Deterministic and Stochastic Trends: How Much Detrending Matters For Shock Identification’, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, forthcoming.(CAMA WP 46/ 2014)

Multi-Country Models and Methods program

• Arora, V., R. Tyers and Y. Zhang (2015), ‘Reconstructing the savings glut: the global implications of Asian excess saving’, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 7(7), July.
Tyers, R (2015), ‘Service oligopolies and Australia’s economy-wide performance’, Australian Economic Review, 48(4): 333-56, December.
Tyers, R (2015), ”International effects of China’s rise and transition: neoclassical and Keynesian perspectives’, Journal of Asian Economics, 37: 1-19, April.
Tyers, R (2015), ‘Pessimism shocks in a model of global macroeconomic interdependence’, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 7(1): 37-59, January.

Open Economy Macroeconomics program

Crucini MJ, Shintani M and Tsuruga T, ‘Noisy Information, Distance and Law of One Price Dynamics across US Cities’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2015, 74 pp. 52-66.
Kollmann R,Ratto M and Roeger W, in’t Velt J and Voegel L, “What Drives the German Current Account? And How Does it Affect Other EU Member States?”, Economic Policy, 2015, Vol. 30, pp.47-93.
Kollmann R, “Tractable Latent State Filtering for Non-Linear DSGE Models Using a Second-Order Approximation and Pruning”, Computational Economics, 2015, Vol. 45, pp.239-260.
Kollmann R, “Exchange Rate Dynamics with Long-Run Risk and Recursive Preferences”, Open Economies Review, 2015, Vol. 26, pp.175-196.
Senay, O and Sutherland A.J., ‘Local Currency Pricing, Foreign Monetary Shocks and Exchange Rate Policy’, Open Economies Review, May 2015. DOI: 10.1007/s11079-015-9356-x
Tsuruga T. and Kato R. ‘The Safer, the riskier: A Model of Financial Instability and Bank Leverage’, Economic Modelling (forthcoming).

Books

Finance and the Macroeconomy program

Dwyer, G, ‘Milton Friedman: A Bayesian?’ Forthcoming in Milton Friedman: Contributions to Economics and Public Policy, edited by Robert A. Cord and J. Daniel Hammond.” Oxford University Press, in press.
Kose A and Terrones M: ‘Collapse and Revival : Understanding Global Recessions and Recoveries’. October 2015

Updated:  31 August 2017/Responsible Officer:  Crawford Engagement/Page Contact:  CAMA admin