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All COVID-19 publications

Uncertainty, Skewness and the Business Cycle - Through the MIDAS Lens

Author(s): Castelnuovo E, Lorenzo M
Date of publication: 2022
Publication type: Working paper

We employ a mixed-frequency quantile regression approach to model the time-varying conditional distribution of the US real GDP growth rate. We show that monthly information on the US financial cycle improves the predictive power of an otherwise quarterly-only model. We combine selected quantiles of...

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Aggregate Fluctuations, Network Effects and Covid-19

Author(s): Bahal G, Lenzo D
Date of publication: 2022
Publication type: Working paper

We decompose the macroeconomic impact of Covid-19 in the US using three production network measures. First, we estimate the aggregate indirect effect of sectoral employment shocks, finding these “network spillovers” to account for ≈72% of the decline in real GDP over the second quarter of 2020....

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The Determinants of Provincial Public Health Expenditures in Turkey: Evidence from a Spatial Data Analysis

Author(s): Yildirim J, Öcal N, Alpaslan B
Date of publication: 2022
Publication type: Working paper

This study investigates the determinants of provincial public health expenditures for Turkey, employing spatial econometrics models. To this end, the panel data at NUTS3 level for the period 2009-2019 have been employed. The exploratory spatial data analysis suggests that real GDP per capita, real...

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Effect of remittances on the macroeconomy: A Structural VAR study of Nepal

Author(s): Dahal S
Date of publication: 2022
Publication type: Working paper

The paper examines the short-term macroeconomic impact of remittances using a case study of Nepal, one of the highest remittance-receiving countries in the world as a share of GDP. Despite the massive inflow of remittances during the turn of the century, the quantitative impact of remittances on...

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Fiscal policy in the COVID-19 era

Author(s): Murphy C
Date of publication: 2022
Publication type: Working paper

This paper analyses the COVID recession and the large fiscal policy response by modelling three scenarios using a macro-econometric model. Scenario comparisons show that the recession mainly arose from restrictions on certain consumer services to limit the spread of COVID-19. The large fiscal...

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Financial conditions and zombie companies: International evidence

Author(s): Bowman J
Date of publication: 2022
Publication type: Working paper

Financial conditions eased after the global financial crisis and during the COVID-19 pandemic as policymakers across most countries adopted large scale monetary policy easing. This has increased concern amongst some that a prolonged period of accommodative financial conditions has fostered the...

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Understanding consumer inflation expectations during the COVID-19 pandemic

Author(s): Detmers GA, Ho S-J, Karagedikli O
Date of publication: 2022
Publication type: Working paper

We study how individuals’ formation of inflation expectations are affected by the stringent containment and economic support measures put in place during the Covid-19 pandemic. Using the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) and the Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT...

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Lives versus livelihoods in the middle ages: The impact of the plague on markets over 400 years

Author(s): Madsen JB, Robertson PE, Ye L
Date of publication: 2022
Publication type: Working paper

To what extent did outbreaks of bubonic plague disrupt daily economic activity? We estimate the impact of epidemics on regional markets over four centuries – from the Black Death in the 14th century, until the medieval form of the plague became extinct in the 17th century. Despite the extreme...

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COVID-19 and firms’ stock price growth: The role of market capitalization

Author(s): Brueckner M, Kang W, Vespignani J
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

This paper studies the role of capitalization on firms’ stock price growth in response to new cases of Covid-19 infections in the United States. Controlling for firm and time fixed effects, our panel model estimates show that the effect of new cases of Covid-19 infections on firms’ stock price...

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What has been the impact of COVID-19 on debt? Turning a wave into a tsunami

Author(s): Kose MA, Nagle P, Ohnsorge F, Sugawara N
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on debt, puts recent debt developments and prospects in historical context, and analyzes new policy challenges associated with debt resolution. The paper reports three main results. First, even before the pandemic, a rapid build...

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