All COVID-19 publications

The impact of COVID-19 on Japanese firms: Mobility and resilience via remote work

Author(s): Kawaguchi D, Kitao S, Nose M
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

Drawing on the original survey of Japanese firms during the COVID-19 pandemic, we estimate the impact of the crisis on firms’ sales, employment and hours worked per employee and roles of Work-from-Home (WfH) arrangements in mitigating negative effects. We find that the lowered mobility, induced by...

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Democracy and fiscal-policy responses to COVID-19

Author(s): Elgin C, Yalaman A, Yasar S
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between the level of democracy and fiscal-policy response to the economic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. We use a novel cross-country dataset of fiscal-policy responses with time variation. Our results suggest that more democratic countries...

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Tracking weekly state-level economic conditions

Author(s): Baumeister C, Leiva-Leon D, Sims E
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

In this paper, we develop a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We show that there is...

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Testing the predictive accuracy of COVID-19 forecasts

Author(s): Coroneo L, Iacone F, Paccagnini A, Monteiro PS
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

We test the predictive accuracy of forecasts of the number of COVID-19 fatalities produced by several forecasting teams and collected by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during the first and second waves of the epidemic in the United States. We find three main results....

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Belief-driven dynamics in a behavioral SEIRD macroeconomic model with sceptics

Author(s): Proano CR, Makavewicz T
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

The reluctance of a significant number of individuals in the current COVID-19 pandemic to adhere to social distancing measures - and even to get vaccinated - seems to be one of the major obstacles for the long-term success of public health policies around the world. Against this background we study...

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Stay-at-home orders in a fiscal union

Author(s): Crucini MJ, O'Flaherty O
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

State and local governments throughout the United States attempted to mitigate the spread of Covid-19 using stay-at-home orders to limit social interactions and mobility. We study the economic impact of these orders and their optimal implementation in a fiscal union. Using an event study framework...

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Higher-order comoment contagion among G20 equity markets during the COVID-19 pandemic

Author(s): Fry-McKibbin R, Greenwood-Nimmo M, Hsiao CYL, Qi L
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Workshop report

We study the distribution of equity returns in the G20 equity markets to test for contagion following the first official report of a COVID19 case in China in December 2019 and the subsequent announcement of a global pandemic in March 2020. We find evidence of contagion of Chinese equity market tail...

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Covid-19 fiscal support and its effectiveness

Author(s): Chudik A, Mohaddes K, Raissi M
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

This paper uses a threshold-augmented Global VAR model to quantify the macroeconomic effects of countries’ discretionary fiscal actions in response to the Covid-19 pandemic and its fallout. Our results are threefold: (1) fiscal policy is playing a key role in mitigating the effects of the pandemic...

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COVID-19 and seasonal adjustment

Author(s): Abeln B, Jacobs JPAM
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

The COVID19 crisis has a huge impact on economies all over the world. In this note we compare seasonal adjustments of X13 and CAMPLET before and after the COVID19 crisis. We show results of Quasi Real Time analyses for the quarterly series real GDP and the monthly series Consumption of Households...

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Diversifier or more? Hedge and safe haven properties of green bonds during COVID-19

Author(s): Arif M, Naeem MA, Farid S, Nepal R, Jasmab T
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

Against the backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic, this study explores the hedging and safe-haven potential of green bonds for conventional equity, fixed income, commodity, and forex investments. We use the cross-quantilogram approach that provides a better understanding of the dynamic relationship...

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