All COVID-19 publications

COVID-19 and seasonal adjustment

Author(s): Abeln B, Jacobs JPAM
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

The COVID19 crisis has a huge impact on economies all over the world. In this note we compare seasonal adjustments of X13 and CAMPLET before and after the COVID19 crisis. We show results of Quasi Real Time analyses for the quarterly series real GDP and the monthly series Consumption of Households...

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Diversifier or more? Hedge and safe haven properties of green bonds during COVID-19

Author(s): Arif M, Naeem MA, Farid S, Nepal R, Jasmab T
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

Against the backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic, this study explores the hedging and safe-haven potential of green bonds for conventional equity, fixed income, commodity, and forex investments. We use the cross-quantilogram approach that provides a better understanding of the dynamic relationship...

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Macroeconomic policy adjustments due to COVID-19: Scenarios to 2025 with a focus on Asia

Author(s): Fernando R, McKibbin WJ
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

This paper updates the analysis of the global macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic in McKibbin and Fernando (2020c) with data as of late October 2020. It also extends the focus to Asian economies and explores four alternative policy interventions coordinated across all economies. The...

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Nowcasting ‘true’ monthly US GDP during the pandemic

Author(s): Koop G, McIntyre S, Mitchell J, Poon A
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

Expenditure side and income side GDP are both measured at the quarterly frequency in the US and contain measurement error. They are noisy proxies of `true’ GDP. Several econometric methods exist for producing estimates of true GDP which reconcile these noisy estimates. Recently, the authors of this...

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Pandemics and aggregate demand: A framework for policy analysis

Author(s): Flaschel P, Galanis G, Tavani D, Veneziani R
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Workshop report

This paper studies the interaction between epidemiological dynamics and the dynamics of economic activity in a demand-driven model in the structuralist/post-Keynesian tradition. On the one hand, rising aggregate demand increases the contact rate and therefore the probability of exposure to a virus...

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Redistribution and the monetary–fiscal policy mix

Author(s): Bhattarai S, Lee JW, Yang C
Date of publication: 2020
Publication type: Working paper

We show that the effectiveness of redistribution policy in stimulating the economy and improving welfare is directly tied to how much inflation it generates, which in turn hinges on monetary-fiscal adjustments that ultimately finance the transfers. We compare two distinct types of monetary-fiscal...

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Be kind or take it on the chin? Political narratives, pandemics, and social distancing

Author(s): Anand K, Gai P, Lou E, Wu SX
Date of publication: 2020
Publication type: Working paper

How does a political leader’s messaging during a pandemic influence social distancing by citizens? We model the strategic choice of narrative in a beauty contest setting where the leader seeks to eliminate the disease. The leader’s resolve to eliminate the disease affects her narrative in a non-...

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A counterfactual economic analysis of Covid-19 using a threshold augmented multi-country model

Author(s): Chudik A, Mohaddes K, Pesaran MH, Raissi M, Rebucci A
Date of publication: 2020
Publication type: Working paper

This paper develops a threshold-augmented dynamic multi-country model (TGVAR) to quantify the macroeconomic effects of Covid-19. We show that there exist threshold effects in the relationship between output growth and excess global volatility at individual country levels in a significant majority...

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Implications of cheap oil for emerging markets

Author(s): Kabundi A, Ohnsorge F
Date of publication: 2020
Publication type: Working paper

The COVID-19-triggered collapse in oil prices in March and April 2020 was the seventh, and by far the most severe, in a series of such collapses since 1970. This paper, first, compares this most recent collapse and its drivers with previous ones in an event study. It finds that it was associated...

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Uncertainty and monetary policy during extreme events

Author(s): Pellegrino G, Castelnuovo E, Caggiano G
Date of publication: 2020
Publication type: Working paper

How damaging are uncertainty shocks during extreme events such as the great recession and the Covid-19 outbreak? Can monetary policy limit output losses in such situations? We use a nonlinear VAR framework to document the large response of real activity to a financial uncertainty shock during the...

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