All COVID-19 publications

Lives versus livelihoods in the middle ages: The impact of the plague on markets over 400 years

Author(s): Madsen JB, Robertson PE, Ye L
Date of publication: 2022
Publication type: Working paper

To what extent did outbreaks of bubonic plague disrupt daily economic activity? We estimate the impact of epidemics on regional markets over four centuries – from the Black Death in the 14th century, until the medieval form of the plague became extinct in the 17th century. Despite the extreme...

» further information

COVID-19 and firms’ stock price growth: The role of market capitalization

Author(s): Brueckner M, Kang W, Vespignani J
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

This paper studies the role of capitalization on firms’ stock price growth in response to new cases of Covid-19 infections in the United States. Controlling for firm and time fixed effects, our panel model estimates show that the effect of new cases of Covid-19 infections on firms’ stock price...

» further information

What has been the impact of COVID-19 on debt? Turning a wave into a tsunami

Author(s): Kose MA, Nagle P, Ohnsorge F, Sugawara N
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on debt, puts recent debt developments and prospects in historical context, and analyzes new policy challenges associated with debt resolution. The paper reports three main results. First, even before the pandemic, a rapid build...

» further information

Stuck at home: Housing demand during the COVID- 19 pandemic

Author(s): Gamber W, Graham J, Yadav A
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

The COVID-19 pandemic induced an increase in both the amount of time that households spend at home and the share of expenditures allocated to at-home consumption. These changes coincided with a period of rapidly rising house prices. We interpret these facts as the result of stay-at-home shocks that...

» further information

Cyclical signals from the labor market

Author(s): Berger T, Boll PD, Morley J, Wong B
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

We consider which labor market variables are the most informative for estimating and now-casting the U.S. output gap using a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition. Although the unemployment rate clearly contains important cyclical information, it also appears to reflect more persistent movements...

» further information

A mountain of debt: Navigating the legacy of the pandemic

Author(s): Kose MA, Franziska O, Sugawara N
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a massive increase in global debt levels and exacerbated the trade-offs between the benefits and costs of accumulating government debt. This paper examines these trade-offs by putting the recent debt boom into a historical context. It reports three major findings...

» further information

The impact of COVID-19 on Japanese firms: Mobility and resilience via remote work

Author(s): Kawaguchi D, Kitao S, Nose M
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

Drawing on the original survey of Japanese firms during the COVID-19 pandemic, we estimate the impact of the crisis on firms’ sales, employment and hours worked per employee and roles of Work-from-Home (WfH) arrangements in mitigating negative effects. We find that the lowered mobility, induced by...

» further information

Democracy and fiscal-policy responses to COVID-19

Author(s): Elgin C, Yalaman A, Yasar S
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between the level of democracy and fiscal-policy response to the economic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. We use a novel cross-country dataset of fiscal-policy responses with time variation. Our results suggest that more democratic countries...

» further information

Tracking weekly state-level economic conditions

Author(s): Baumeister C, Leiva-Leon D, Sims E
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

In this paper, we develop a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We show that there is...

» further information

Testing the predictive accuracy of COVID-19 forecasts

Author(s): Coroneo L, Iacone F, Paccagnini A, Monteiro PS
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

We test the predictive accuracy of forecasts of the number of COVID-19 fatalities produced by several forecasting teams and collected by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during the first and second waves of the epidemic in the United States. We find three main results....

» further information

Pages

Updated:  22 January 2022/Responsible Officer:  Crawford Engagement/Page Contact:  CAMA admin