All COVID-19 publications

Business Cycle and Health Dynamics during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Scandinavian Perspective

Author(s): Bjørnland HC, Jensen MC, Thorsrud LA
Date of publication: 2024
Publication type: Working paper

We use a unique measure of daily economic activity and manually audited nonpharmaceutical intervention indexes for Norway and Sweden to model the dynamics between COVID-19, policy, health, and business cycles within a SVAR framework. Our analysis documents large measurement errors in commonly used...

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Covid-19, Mobility Restriction Policies and Stock Market Volatility: A Cross-Country Empirical Study

Author(s): Ahadzie RM, Daugaard D, Kangogo M, Khan F, Vespignani J
Date of publication: 2023
Publication type: Working paper

This study investigates the impact of Covid-19 infections and mobility restriction policies on stock market volatility. We estimate panel data models for seven countries using daily data from February 12, 2020 to April 14, 2021. Our results show that the number of new cases of Covid-19 infections...

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The Effects of COVID-19 and JobKeeper on Productivity-Enhancing Reallocation in Australia

Author(s): Andrews D, Bahar E, Hambur J
Date of publication: 2023
Publication type: Working paper

The consequences of the pandemic for potential output will partly hinge on its impact on productivity-enhancing reallocation. While recessions can accelerate this process, the more ‘random’ nature of the COVID-19 shock coupled with policy responses that prioritised preservation could disrupt...

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Does the Survey of Professional Forecasters Help Predict the Shape of Recessions in Real Time? 

Author(s): Eo Y, Morley J
Date of publication: 2023
Publication type: Working paper

An updated version of our Markov-switching model of U.S. real GDP clearly suggests the COVID-19 recession was more U shaped than L shaped. As with linear time series models, it is important to account for extreme outliers during the pandemic, but a simple decay function for volatility from 2020Q2...

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Uncertainty, Skewness and the Business Cycle - Through the MIDAS Lens

Author(s): Castelnuovo E, Lorenzo M
Date of publication: 2022
Publication type: Working paper

We employ a mixed-frequency quantile regression approach to model the time-varying conditional distribution of the US real GDP growth rate. We show that monthly information on the US financial cycle improves the predictive power of an otherwise quarterly-only model. We combine selected quantiles of...

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Aggregate Fluctuations, Network Effects and Covid-19

Author(s): Bahal G, Lenzo D
Date of publication: 2022
Publication type: Working paper

We decompose the macroeconomic impact of Covid-19 in the US using three production network measures. First, we estimate the aggregate indirect effect of sectoral employment shocks, finding these “network spillovers” to account for ≈72% of the decline in real GDP over the second quarter of 2020....

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The Determinants of Provincial Public Health Expenditures in Turkey: Evidence from a Spatial Data Analysis

Author(s): Yildirim J, Öcal N, Alpaslan B
Date of publication: 2022
Publication type: Working paper

This study investigates the determinants of provincial public health expenditures for Turkey, employing spatial econometrics models. To this end, the panel data at NUTS3 level for the period 2009-2019 have been employed. The exploratory spatial data analysis suggests that real GDP per capita, real...

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Effect of remittances on the macroeconomy: A Structural VAR study of Nepal

Author(s): Dahal S
Date of publication: 2022
Publication type: Working paper

The paper examines the short-term macroeconomic impact of remittances using a case study of Nepal, one of the highest remittance-receiving countries in the world as a share of GDP. Despite the massive inflow of remittances during the turn of the century, the quantitative impact of remittances on...

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Fiscal policy in the COVID-19 era

Author(s): Murphy C
Date of publication: 2022
Publication type: Working paper

This paper analyses the COVID recession and the large fiscal policy response by modelling three scenarios using a macro-econometric model. Scenario comparisons show that the recession mainly arose from restrictions on certain consumer services to limit the spread of COVID-19. The large fiscal...

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Financial conditions and zombie companies: International evidence

Author(s): Bowman J
Date of publication: 2022
Publication type: Working paper

Financial conditions eased after the global financial crisis and during the COVID-19 pandemic as policymakers across most countries adopted large scale monetary policy easing. This has increased concern amongst some that a prolonged period of accommodative financial conditions has fostered the...

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