All COVID-19 publications
Lives versus livelihoods in the middle ages: The impact of the plague on markets over 400 years
Author(s): Madsen JB, Robertson PE, Ye LDate of publication: 2022
Publication type: Working paper
To what extent did outbreaks of bubonic plague disrupt daily economic activity? We estimate the impact of epidemics on regional markets over four centuries – from the Black Death in the 14th century, until the medieval form of the plague became extinct in the 17th century. Despite the extreme...
COVID-19 and firms’ stock price growth: The role of market capitalization
Author(s): Brueckner M, Kang W, Vespignani JDate of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper
This paper studies the role of capitalization on firms’ stock price growth in response to new cases of Covid-19 infections in the United States. Controlling for firm and time fixed effects, our panel model estimates show that the effect of new cases of Covid-19 infections on firms’ stock price...
What has been the impact of COVID-19 on debt? Turning a wave into a tsunami
Author(s): Kose MA, Nagle P, Ohnsorge F, Sugawara NDate of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper
This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on debt, puts recent debt developments and prospects in historical context, and analyzes new policy challenges associated with debt resolution. The paper reports three main results. First, even before the pandemic, a rapid build...
Stuck at home: Housing demand during the COVID- 19 pandemic
Author(s): Gamber W, Graham J, Yadav ADate of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper
The COVID-19 pandemic induced an increase in both the amount of time that households spend at home and the share of expenditures allocated to at-home consumption. These changes coincided with a period of rapidly rising house prices. We interpret these facts as the result of stay-at-home shocks that...
Cyclical signals from the labor market
Author(s): Berger T, Boll PD, Morley J, Wong BDate of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper
We consider which labor market variables are the most informative for estimating and now-casting the U.S. output gap using a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition. Although the unemployment rate clearly contains important cyclical information, it also appears to reflect more persistent movements...
A mountain of debt: Navigating the legacy of the pandemic
Author(s): Kose MA, Franziska O, Sugawara NDate of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper
The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a massive increase in global debt levels and exacerbated the trade-offs between the benefits and costs of accumulating government debt. This paper examines these trade-offs by putting the recent debt boom into a historical context. It reports three major findings...
The impact of COVID-19 on Japanese firms: Mobility and resilience via remote work
Author(s): Kawaguchi D, Kitao S, Nose MDate of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper
Drawing on the original survey of Japanese firms during the COVID-19 pandemic, we estimate the impact of the crisis on firms’ sales, employment and hours worked per employee and roles of Work-from-Home (WfH) arrangements in mitigating negative effects. We find that the lowered mobility, induced by...
Democracy and fiscal-policy responses to COVID-19
Author(s): Elgin C, Yalaman A, Yasar SDate of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper
In this paper, we investigate the relationship between the level of democracy and fiscal-policy response to the economic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. We use a novel cross-country dataset of fiscal-policy responses with time variation. Our results suggest that more democratic countries...
Tracking weekly state-level economic conditions
Author(s): Baumeister C, Leiva-Leon D, Sims EDate of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper
In this paper, we develop a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We show that there is...
Testing the predictive accuracy of COVID-19 forecasts
Author(s): Coroneo L, Iacone F, Paccagnini A, Monteiro PSDate of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper
We test the predictive accuracy of forecasts of the number of COVID-19 fatalities produced by several forecasting teams and collected by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during the first and second waves of the epidemic in the United States. We find three main results....
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