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All COVID-19 publications

Testing the predictive accuracy of COVID-19 forecasts

Author(s): Coroneo L, Iacone F, Paccagnini A, Monteiro PS
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

We test the predictive accuracy of forecasts of the number of COVID-19 fatalities produced by several forecasting teams and collected by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during the first and second waves of the epidemic in the United States. We find three main results....

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Belief-driven dynamics in a behavioral SEIRD macroeconomic model with sceptics

Author(s): Proano CR, Makavewicz T
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

The reluctance of a significant number of individuals in the current COVID-19 pandemic to adhere to social distancing measures - and even to get vaccinated - seems to be one of the major obstacles for the long-term success of public health policies around the world. Against this background we study...

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Stay-at-home orders in a fiscal union

Author(s): Crucini MJ, O'Flaherty O
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

State and local governments throughout the United States attempted to mitigate the spread of Covid-19 using stay-at-home orders to limit social interactions and mobility. We study the economic impact of these orders and their optimal implementation in a fiscal union. Using an event study framework...

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Higher-order comoment contagion among G20 equity markets during the COVID-19 pandemic

Author(s): Fry-McKibbin R, Greenwood-Nimmo M, Hsiao CYL, Qi L
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Workshop report

We study the distribution of equity returns in the G20 equity markets to test for contagion following the first official report of a COVID19 case in China in December 2019 and the subsequent announcement of a global pandemic in March 2020. We find evidence of contagion of Chinese equity market tail...

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Covid-19 fiscal support and its effectiveness

Author(s): Chudik A, Mohaddes K, Raissi M
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

This paper uses a threshold-augmented Global VAR model to quantify the macroeconomic effects of countries’ discretionary fiscal actions in response to the Covid-19 pandemic and its fallout. Our results are threefold: (1) fiscal policy is playing a key role in mitigating the effects of the pandemic...

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COVID-19 and seasonal adjustment

Author(s): Abeln B, Jacobs JPAM
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

The COVID19 crisis has a huge impact on economies all over the world. In this note we compare seasonal adjustments of X13 and CAMPLET before and after the COVID19 crisis. We show results of Quasi Real Time analyses for the quarterly series real GDP and the monthly series Consumption of Households...

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Diversifier or more? Hedge and safe haven properties of green bonds during COVID-19

Author(s): Arif M, Naeem MA, Farid S, Nepal R, Jasmab T
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

Against the backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic, this study explores the hedging and safe-haven potential of green bonds for conventional equity, fixed income, commodity, and forex investments. We use the cross-quantilogram approach that provides a better understanding of the dynamic relationship...

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Macroeconomic policy adjustments due to COVID-19: Scenarios to 2025 with a focus on Asia

Author(s): Fernando R, McKibbin WJ
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

This paper updates the analysis of the global macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic in McKibbin and Fernando (2020c) with data as of late October 2020. It also extends the focus to Asian economies and explores four alternative policy interventions coordinated across all economies. The...

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Nowcasting ‘true’ monthly US GDP during the pandemic

Author(s): Koop G, McIntyre S, Mitchell J, Poon A
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

Expenditure side and income side GDP are both measured at the quarterly frequency in the US and contain measurement error. They are noisy proxies of `true’ GDP. Several econometric methods exist for producing estimates of true GDP which reconcile these noisy estimates. Recently, the authors of this...

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Pandemics and aggregate demand: A framework for policy analysis

Author(s): Flaschel P, Galanis G, Tavani D, Veneziani R
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Workshop report

This paper studies the interaction between epidemiological dynamics and the dynamics of economic activity in a demand-driven model in the structuralist/post-Keynesian tradition. On the one hand, rising aggregate demand increases the contact rate and therefore the probability of exposure to a virus...

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