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All COVID-19 publications

Understanding consumer inflation expectations during the COVID-19 pandemic

Author(s): Detmers GA, Ho S-J, Karagedikli O
Date of publication: 2022
Publication type: Working paper

We study how individuals’ formation of inflation expectations are affected by the stringent containment and economic support measures put in place during the Covid-19 pandemic. Using the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) and the Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT...

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Lives versus livelihoods in the middle ages: The impact of the plague on markets over 400 years

Author(s): Madsen JB, Robertson PE, Ye L
Date of publication: 2022
Publication type: Working paper

To what extent did outbreaks of bubonic plague disrupt daily economic activity? We estimate the impact of epidemics on regional markets over four centuries – from the Black Death in the 14th century, until the medieval form of the plague became extinct in the 17th century. Despite the extreme...

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COVID-19 and firms’ stock price growth: The role of market capitalization

Author(s): Brueckner M, Kang W, Vespignani J
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

This paper studies the role of capitalization on firms’ stock price growth in response to new cases of Covid-19 infections in the United States. Controlling for firm and time fixed effects, our panel model estimates show that the effect of new cases of Covid-19 infections on firms’ stock price...

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What has been the impact of COVID-19 on debt? Turning a wave into a tsunami

Author(s): Kose MA, Nagle P, Ohnsorge F, Sugawara N
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on debt, puts recent debt developments and prospects in historical context, and analyzes new policy challenges associated with debt resolution. The paper reports three main results. First, even before the pandemic, a rapid build...

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Stuck at home: Housing demand during the COVID- 19 pandemic

Author(s): Gamber W, Graham J, Yadav A
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

The COVID-19 pandemic induced an increase in both the amount of time that households spend at home and the share of expenditures allocated to at-home consumption. These changes coincided with a period of rapidly rising house prices. We interpret these facts as the result of stay-at-home shocks that...

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Cyclical signals from the labor market

Author(s): Berger T, Boll PD, Morley J, Wong B
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

We consider which labor market variables are the most informative for estimating and now-casting the U.S. output gap using a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition. Although the unemployment rate clearly contains important cyclical information, it also appears to reflect more persistent movements...

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A mountain of debt: Navigating the legacy of the pandemic

Author(s): Kose MA, Franziska O, Sugawara N
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a massive increase in global debt levels and exacerbated the trade-offs between the benefits and costs of accumulating government debt. This paper examines these trade-offs by putting the recent debt boom into a historical context. It reports three major findings...

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The impact of COVID-19 on Japanese firms: Mobility and resilience via remote work

Author(s): Kawaguchi D, Kitao S, Nose M
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

Drawing on the original survey of Japanese firms during the COVID-19 pandemic, we estimate the impact of the crisis on firms’ sales, employment and hours worked per employee and roles of Work-from-Home (WfH) arrangements in mitigating negative effects. We find that the lowered mobility, induced by...

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Democracy and fiscal-policy responses to COVID-19

Author(s): Elgin C, Yalaman A, Yasar S
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between the level of democracy and fiscal-policy response to the economic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. We use a novel cross-country dataset of fiscal-policy responses with time variation. Our results suggest that more democratic countries...

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Tracking weekly state-level economic conditions

Author(s): Baumeister C, Leiva-Leon D, Sims E
Date of publication: 2021
Publication type: Working paper

In this paper, we develop a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We show that there is...

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