The pace of evolution of COVID-19 has meant the need for new data and methods of analysing data more urgently than ever before. Our speakers are Anthony Goldbloom (CEO and founder of Kaggle, the world’s largest machine learning community), David Gruen (Australian Statistician and Agency Head of the Australian Bureau of Statistics), and Tara Sinclair (Associate Professor at George Washington University and Senior Fellow of the Indeed Hiring Lab). Our speakers will share their substantial experience in their critical roles being on the frontline of COVID-19 and managing data.
The paper presented in this seminar examines the impact of the behavioral changes and governments’ responses to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic using a unique dataset of daily private forecasters’ expectations on a sample of 32 emerging and advanced economies from January 1 until April 13, 2020.
Economic recovery from COVID19 will require a massive global stimulus. Join Barbara Buchner (Climate Policy Initiative), Frank Jotzo (ANU) and Adele Morris (Brookings Institution) in a discussion on how the required stimulus presents an opportunity for governments to address the pressing need for solutions to climate change, while at the same time supporting economic recovery.
Using a Bayesian-estimated structural multivariate filtering model calibrated to data for Australia and the United States, the innovation of the paper presented by Augustus in this webinar is the incorporation of climate hysteresis into the estimation of potential output and the output and unemployment gaps. The results suggest non-trivia implications for monetary policy in a carbon-constrained world.
Join the panel discussion featuring Ayhan Kose of the World Bank, John Bluedorn of the IMF and Warwick McKibbin from the ANU as they share their insights into likely economic outcomes of COVID-19.
The paper presented in this seminar quantifies the finance uncertainty multiplier by relying on two historical events related to the US economy, i.e., the large jump in financial uncertainty occurred in October 1987, and the comparable jump in financial uncertainty in September 2008.
In this seminar Benjamin Wong will propose a way to directly nowcast the output gap using the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition based on a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR.
Daniel Rees, Bank for International Settlements; Hilde Bjornland, BI Norwegian Business School, and James Morley, University of Sydney, will share their views on the trade-offs between growth, population containment, and health in a COVID world in a panel discussion on June 4, 2020.
To celebrate the launch of the new research program ‘COVID-19 and the macroeconomy’ in the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis a zoom panel is planned for Tuesday, May 19, 2020.
The paper presented in this seminar provides a framework to endogenise rates of return for risk-free bonds and risky capital in an overlapping generation model, where the return on capital is endogenized by introducing idiosyncratic production shocks to avoid computation challenges associated with aggregate production shocks in the literature. The framework enables the interaction between financial markets and macroeconomic conditions in a production economy.