The presentation of the IMF’s October 2019 World Economic Outlook publication ‘Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers’ will cover IMF’s latest analysis on global growth prospects, risks, and policy priorities.
This study examines the tendency of resource firms to overinvest induced by business cycles and uncertainties. The analysis is conducted using unbalanced panel data of 596 resource companies in 32 countries between 1986 and 2017 in four resource sectors: (1) alternative energy; (2) forestry and paper; (3) mining; and (4) oil and gas producers. The overall results suggest a positive uncertainty-overinvestment relationship.
The paper presented in this seminar shows that the likelihood a defaulting sovereign is granted an IMF loan is increasing with US banks’ exposures to its country.
In this seminar, Daniel Silva Withmory will present his paper that analyses the responses of output and hours worked to shocks that have permanent and transitory effects on output.
Policy rules were the subject of much research in the 1970’s, 1980’s and 1990’s, but in the following years, until recently, there was a lull. Now there’s a big pickup, whether at conferences, in research papers, or in central bank publications, including whole new sections on rules in comparison with actual policy. This lecture documents these developments, and offers possible explanations, including revealed preference by policymakers, the need to deal with the effective lower bound on the interest rate, disappointment with monetary policy in some countries leading to the global financial crisis, threats of legislation, and concerns about people kibitzing about policy without a monetary framework.
The paper presented in this seminar examines the determinants of Taiwan’s terms of trade over the last three decades.
The paper presented in this seminar investigates the macroeconomic implications of demographic changes when households have age-dependent increasing risk aversion in future utility.
As China’s economy grows and vertical specialisation rises in Asia, the question of how and to what extent China influences other Asian economies through this specific trade channel is of interest to researchers. Given the high degree global value chain participation and trade integration with China, Taiwan serves as a good case to examine this question.
In this seminar the author will present his paper on ‘Quantile connectedness: Modelling tail behaviour in the topology of financial networks’ where he develops a new technique to estimate vector autoregressions by quantile regression.
In this seminar Augustus Panton will present his paper on ‘Leaning against the wind via finance-neutral output gaps: Inflation targeting and financial stability in an open economy’.