The paper presented in this seminar provides a framework to endogenise rates of return for risk-free bonds and risky capital in an overlapping generation model, where the return on capital is endogenized by introducing idiosyncratic production shocks to avoid computation challenges associated with aggregate production shocks in the literature. The framework enables the interaction between financial markets and macroeconomic conditions in a production economy.
The heterogeneous effects of global and national business cycles on employment in US states and metropolitan areas
The growth of globalisation in recent decades has increased the importance of external factors as drivers of the business cycle in many countries. Globalisation affects countries not just at the macro level but at the level of states and metro areas as well. The paper presented in this seminar isolates the relative importance of global, national and region-specific shocks as drivers of the business cycle in individual US states and metro areas.
Despite the claims that women fail to access education, job opportunities and political responsibility compared with men, the role of women has gradually changed, and there has been a significant increase in the number of women entrepreneurs recently. Using the data from Vietnam SMEs for the period from 2007 to 2015 and fixed effect estimations, Hang Hoang explores the effects of gender on SME activities in three dimensions: innovation, credit access and environmental outcome.
In this seminar, Anthony Wiskich will describe an integrated assessment model with an unknown temperature threshold where severe and irreversible climate impacts, called a tipping point, occurs.
In this seminar Juha Tervala will analyse the welfare multipliers of public spending — the consumption equivalent change in welfare for a one dollar change in public spending — in a DSGE model.
There is a substantial body of theoretical and empirical research on asset price comovement and determinants. The empirical analysis presented in this seminar differs in that it incorporates a channel for cross country comovement in asset prices, as well in a set of proposed asset price determinants, across a sample of nine OECD countries.
The presentation of the IMF’s October 2019 World Economic Outlook publication ‘Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers’ will cover IMF’s latest analysis on global growth prospects, risks, and policy priorities.
This study examines the tendency of resource firms to overinvest induced by business cycles and uncertainties. The analysis is conducted using unbalanced panel data of 596 resource companies in 32 countries between 1986 and 2017 in four resource sectors: (1) alternative energy; (2) forestry and paper; (3) mining; and (4) oil and gas producers. The overall results suggest a positive uncertainty-overinvestment relationship.
The paper presented in this seminar shows that the likelihood a defaulting sovereign is granted an IMF loan is increasing with US banks’ exposures to its country.
In this seminar, Daniel Silva Withmory will present his paper that analyses the responses of output and hours worked to shocks that have permanent and transitory effects on output.