Uncertainty and sign-dependent effects of oil market shocks

This seminar investigates the oil market reaction to its fundamental shocks in different regimes characterised by uncertainty in the market.

Interaction between interest rate, credit and asset prices

In this seminar, Daniel Silva Withmory will present his paper that assesses the interaction between monetary policy, credit and asset prices in Australia, using a FAVAR approach.

Using macroeconomic theory for macroeconomic policymaking: Understanding Australia’s successful experience from the 1920s to the end of the 20th century.

Why is macroeconomic policymaking in Australia generally seen as successful by observers in the rest of the world? Professor David Vines will explore the radical shift in thinking about open- economy macroeconomics which has taken place in Australia between the 1920s and the present.

Hysteresis and the Australian economy

In this seminar Timothy Watson will present his thesis proposal review on ‘Hysteresis and the Australian Economy’.

Timothy’s PhD research will investigate output and unemployment fiscal multipliers in Australia, and how these vary based on capacity utilisation and whether fiscal policy is conducted on a counter or pro cyclical basis. It will also explore cross-country evidence concerning how multipliers differ based on the above factors and also with reference to differences in exchange rate regimes, openness, government and private debt, and monetary policy settings. Based on these results, he will explore what new features need to be incorporated into macroeconomic models of the Australian economy to reflect the empirical regularities observed, providing new insights into the optimal conduct of macroeconomic policy.

Climatic disruptions and output gaps: should central banks incorporate climate effects into policy?

This seminar presents a multivariate filtering model estimated by the data-driven Maximum Likelihood technique in the state-space context to derive climate-neutral measures of potential output and output gaps.

Impact of demographic change on macroeconomic and environmental outcomes

The world is experiencing unprecedented demographic changes, raising an important question about the effects on global carbon emissions. In this seminar, Tsendsuren Batsuuri presents an overview of her PhD dissertation proposal which will comprise of four papers around these issues.

Low volatility as a predictor of stock market crisis

In this seminar, Lin Qi will present an overview of his thesis on Low volatility as a predictor of stock market crisis.

IMF World Economic Outlook October 2018

This presentation will discuss issues facing the global economy 10 years after the 2008 financial crisis, based on the recently launched edition of the IMF’s flagship publication, World Economic Outlook, October 2018.

Improved methods for combining point forecasts for an asymmetrically distributed variable

Many studies have found that forecast combination improves forecast accuracy. An often-used approach developed by Granger and Ramanathan (GR, 1984) utilises a linear-Gaussian regression model to combine point forecasts. This presentation generalises their approach for an asymmetrically distributed target variable.

Ten years after the financial crisis: What have we learned from the Renaissance in fiscal research?

In this seminar, Valerie Ramey will present an overview of her paper “Ten years after the financial crisis: What have we learned from the Renaissance in fiscal research?” This paper takes stock of what she has learned from the ‘Renaissance’ in fiscal research in the ten years since the financial crisis.