In this seminar Dony Alex will provide an overview of her recent paper, ‘Does nominal GDP pass the forecastability test for being the future monetary policy framework?’. This paper tries to compare the forecast performance between the nominal anchors of inflation and nominal GDP targeting regimes for US. This task is undertaken by using a series of models from simple autoregressive models to state space models. Dony concludes that inflation has been found quite hard to forecast, but it seems that nominal GDP is much more harder to forecast.

Dony Alex is a PhD student at CAMA. His research interests are in monetary policy and macroeconomics.

The CAMA Macroeconomics Brown Bag Seminars offer CAMA speakers, in particular PhD students, an opportunity to present their work in progress in front of their peers, and reputable visitors to showcase their work.