In this seminar Gabriela Nodari will provide an overview of her recent paper, Estimating Fiscal Multipliers: News from a Non-linear World. Gabriela estimates non-linear VARs to assess to what extent fiscal spending multipliers are countercyclical in the United States. The author deals with the issue of non fundamentalness due to fiscal foresight by appealing to sums of revisions of expectations of fiscal expenditures. This measure of anticipated fiscal shocks is shown to carry valuable information of future evolutions of public spending. Results found by the author and based on generalized impulse responses suggest that fiscal spending multipliers in recessions are greater than one, but not statistically large than in expansions. However, non-linearities arise when focusing on deep recessions vs. strong expansionary periods.

Gabriela is a PhD candidate in Economics at the Graduate School of Economics and Management, a joint program offered by the Universities of Padua, Verona and Venice Ca’ Foscari. Her research field is empirical macroeconomics. Her main focus is on understanding the role played by non-linearities in the transmission mechanism of macroeconomic shocks. She is currently visiting the University of New South Wales.

The CAMA Macroeconomics Brown Bag Seminars offer CAMA speakers, in particular PhD students, an opportunity to present their work in progress in front of their peers, and reputable visitors to showcase their work.