Mariano Kulish

The RBA should increase the cash rate at its next meeting. As I said in August 2023, monetary policy, while less expansionary than before, remains expansionary. This remains true today. With underlying inflation running above 5 per cent, the real cash rate remains negative. Real rates for households and businesses are at historically low levels as well. The labour market continues to be tight. The exchange rate remains weak as expectations of future monetary policy in the United States incorporated the higher-for-longer message of the Federal Reserve. A weak exchange rate add to the ability of foreign inflation to turn into domestic inflation. The RBA should put more weight on the risks associated with doing too little, in particular the risk of inflation taking a long time to return to its target. At the moment, giving current inflation, low productivity growth, a weak exchange rate, very high services inflation and historically low real rates, increasing the cash rate, in my view, is required.

Outcome date: 
Sunday 05 November 2023
Current rate: 
12 months: 
6 months: 
3 Years: 

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