James Morley
The current forward guidance by the RBA is clear in terms of expecting to maintain the cash rate at the effective lower bound for at least three years and emphasising a link to inflation being higher than currently and sustainably within the 2-3% target range. Given some recent signs of improving global economic conditions and continued fiscal support for economies such as the United States, it is possible that “liftoff” for the main policy rate (the overnight cash rate) could commence in early 2024. Thus, it may be helpful to modify the guidance language to be even more “calendar-based” in the sense of specifying the overnight cash rate is expected to remain at the effective lower bound until at least the end of 2023. It would also be helpful in managing expectations to allow that inflation may temporarily exceed the target range before liftoff away from the effective lower bound would occur.
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