The Aging Society: Is Growth Reverting to Pre-Industrial Levels in the 21st Century?

Vol: 
61/2024
Author name: 
Madsen JB
Year: 
2024
Month: 
October
Abstract: 

The aging population is expected by many to put an end to the high growth rates experienced in the past century. This paper shows that the aging population and the associated educational and innovative expansion induced by the demographic transition will expand the technology frontier in the 21st century and significantly override the adverse income effects of the aging population. To achieve this, the total income-effects through the channels of innovations, investment, education, and labor force participation are estimated using data over two centuries for 21 OECD countries.

Publication file: 

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