Fiscal consolidations
I examine whether action-based fiscal consolidations are exogenous to contemporaneous GDP growth. Based on the narrative record, these fiscal consolidations had the primary objective to reduce a budget deficit. I find that temperature changes, the GDP growth rate of trading partners, and an international commodity price index have significant: (i) negative contemporaneous effects on action-based fiscal consolidations; (ii) positive contemporaneous effects on GDP growth. These results imply that it is highly unlikely that action-based fiscal consolidations are exogenous to contemporaneous GDP growth. Using an instrumental variables approach, I find that action-based fiscal consolidations have significant positive effects on GDP growth.
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