Measuring synchronicity and co-movement of business cycles with an application to the Euro Area

Vol: 
19/2007
Author name: 
Mink M
Jacobs JPAM
de Haan J
Year: 
2007
Month: 
October
Abstract: 

We develop multivariate measures of synchronicity and co-movement of business cycles. In addition to synchronicity, the co-movement measure takes differences between cycle amplitudes into account that have been overlooked in most previous studies. We apply the new measures to the euro area. Synchronicity and co-movement for the region as a whole do not exhibit a clear upward tendency. Although several countries saw the similarity of their business cycle vis-`a-vis the euro area reference cycle increase, national business cycles remain fairly diverse. Changes in business cycle amplitudes cause most of the observed change in cycle co-movement.

Publication file: 

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