- Berger T, Boll PD, Morley J, Wong B, October 2021, Cyclical signals from the labor market paper no. 91/2021.
- Groshenny N, Heid B, Sewak T, September 2021, Does uncertainty matter for trade flows of emerging economies? paper no. 84/2021.
- Ascari G, Haque Q, Magnusson LM, Mavroeidis S, July 2021, Empirical evidence on the Euler equation for investment in the US paper no. 65/2021.
This program focuses on the role of model uncertainty in empirical macroeconomics. This literature treats the ‘true’ model as an unobservable - an admission that has implications for many areas of macroeconomic analysis and has generated two distinct research sub-programs. One represents a renewed interest in model evaluation, comparison, selection and combinations when model misspecification is explicitly recognized. A second sub-program is based on accounting for model uncertainty explicitly in constructing predictive densities for objects of economic interest, conducting statistical inference and evaluating policies.