- Guo N, Zhang B, Cross J, November 2020, Time-varying trend models for forecasting inflation in Australia paper no. 99/2020.
- Ouliaris S, Pagan A, November 2020, Three questions regarding impulse responses and their interpretation found from sign restrictions paper no. 101/2020.
- Baumeister C, Guérin P, October 2020, A comparison of monthly global indicators for forecasting growth paper no. 93/2020.
This program focuses on the role of model uncertainty in empirical macroeconomics. This literature treats the ‘true’ model as an unobservable - an admission that has implications for many areas of macroeconomic analysis and has generated two distinct research sub-programs. One represents a renewed interest in model evaluation, comparison, selection and combinations when model misspecification is explicitly recognized. A second sub-program is based on accounting for model uncertainty explicitly in constructing predictive densities for objects of economic interest, conducting statistical inference and evaluating policies.