- Cross JL, Hou C, Poon A, April 2018, International transmissions of aggregate macroeconomic uncertainty in small open economies: An empirical approach paper no. 16/2018.
- Liu X, Pagan AR, Robinson T, January 2018, Critically assessing estimated DSGE models: A case study of a multi-sector model paper no. 4/2018.
- Wong B, October 2017, Historical decompositions for nonlinear vector autoregression models paper no. 62/2017.
This program focuses on the role of model uncertainty in empirical macroeconomics. This literature treats the ‘true’ model as an unobservable - an admission that has implications for many areas of macroeconomic analysis and has generated two distinct research sub-programs. One represents a renewed interest in model evaluation, comparison, selection and combinations when model misspecification is explicitly recognized. A second sub-program is based on accounting for model uncertainty explicitly in constructing predictive densities for objects of economic interest, conducting statistical inference and evaluating policies.