- Chan JCC, July 2019, Asymmetric conjugate priors for large Bayesian VARs paper no. 51/2019.
- Pagan A, July 2019, Australian macro-econometric models and their construction - A short history paper no. 50/2019.
- Garratt A, Henckel T, Vahey SP, July 2019, Empirically-transformed linear opinion pools paper no. 47/2019.
This program focuses on the role of model uncertainty in empirical macroeconomics. This literature treats the ‘true’ model as an unobservable - an admission that has implications for many areas of macroeconomic analysis and has generated two distinct research sub-programs. One represents a renewed interest in model evaluation, comparison, selection and combinations when model misspecification is explicitly recognized. A second sub-program is based on accounting for model uncertainty explicitly in constructing predictive densities for objects of economic interest, conducting statistical inference and evaluating policies.