- Behlul T, Panagiotelis A, Athanasopoulos G, Hyndman RJ, Vahid F, February 2017, The Australian Macro Database: An online resource for macroeconomic research in Australia paper no. 15/2017.
- Tien P-L, Sinclair TM, Gamber EN, July 2016, Do Fed forecast errors matter? paper no. 47/2016.
- Chan JCC, Grant AL, July 2016, Reconciling output gaps: Unobserved components model and Hodrick-Prescott filter paper no. 44/2016.
This program focuses on the role of model uncertainty in empirical macroeconomics. This literature treats the ‘true’ model as an unobservable - an admission that has implications for many areas of macroeconomic analysis and has generated two distinct research sub-programs. One represents a renewed interest in model evaluation, comparison, selection and combinations when model misspecification is explicitly recognized. A second sub-program is based on accounting for model uncertainty explicitly in constructing predictive densities for objects of economic interest, conducting statistical inference and evaluating policies.