- Wong B, July 2017, Incorporating relevant multivariate information for characterizing half-life with an application to purchasing power parity paper no. 47/2017.
- Morley J, Wong B, July 2017, Estimating and accounting for the output gap with large Bayesian vector autoregressions paper no. 46/2017.
- Behlul T, Panagiotelis A, Athanasopoulos G, Hyndman RJ, Vahid F, February 2017, The Australian Macro Database: An online resource for macroeconomic research in Australia paper no. 15/2017.
This program focuses on the role of model uncertainty in empirical macroeconomics. This literature treats the ‘true’ model as an unobservable - an admission that has implications for many areas of macroeconomic analysis and has generated two distinct research sub-programs. One represents a renewed interest in model evaluation, comparison, selection and combinations when model misspecification is explicitly recognized. A second sub-program is based on accounting for model uncertainty explicitly in constructing predictive densities for objects of economic interest, conducting statistical inference and evaluating policies.