- Buncic D, Pagan A, Robinson T, September 2023, Recovering Stars in Macroeconomics paper no. 43/2023.
- Herculano M, Jacob P, August 2023, Financial Condition Indices in an Incomplete Data Environment paper no. 42/2023.
- Dinh VH, Nibbering D, Wong B, July 2023, Random Subspace Local Projections paper no. 34/2023.
This program focuses on the role of model uncertainty in empirical macroeconomics. This literature treats the ‘true’ model as an unobservable - an admission that has implications for many areas of macroeconomic analysis and has generated two distinct research sub-programs. One represents a renewed interest in model evaluation, comparison, selection and combinations when model misspecification is explicitly recognized. A second sub-program is based on accounting for model uncertainty explicitly in constructing predictive densities for objects of economic interest, conducting statistical inference and evaluating policies.