- Kapetanios G, Price S, Tasiou M, Ventouri A, February 2020, State-level wage Phillips curves paper no. 08/2020.
- Ferrari D, Ravazzolo F, Vespignani J, December 2019, Forecasting energy commodity prices: A large global dataset sparse approach paper no. 90/2019.
- Haque Q, Magnusson LM, Tomioka K, December 2019, Empirical evidence on the dynamics of investment under uncertainty in the US paper no. 87/2019.
This program focuses on the role of model uncertainty in empirical macroeconomics. This literature treats the ‘true’ model as an unobservable - an admission that has implications for many areas of macroeconomic analysis and has generated two distinct research sub-programs. One represents a renewed interest in model evaluation, comparison, selection and combinations when model misspecification is explicitly recognized. A second sub-program is based on accounting for model uncertainty explicitly in constructing predictive densities for objects of economic interest, conducting statistical inference and evaluating policies.