Outcome-February 2012

News update

Professor Vahey has provided the following observations of the Shadow Board's February decision:

  • highest weight (around 50 percent) given to 4.25 ie hold,

  • roughly 60 percent probability that the RBA Board should not cut; approximately 40 percent they should cut (by at least 25bp),

  • less than 10 probability that the cut should be by 50bp.

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Paul Bloxham
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Mark Crosby
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Mardi Dungey
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Saul Eslake
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Bob Gregory
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Warwick McKibbin
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James Morley
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Jeffrey Sheen
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Mark Thirlwell
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