Uncertainty shocks and inflation dynamics in the US
Vol:
100/2020
Year:
2020
Month:
November
Abstract:
We estimate a time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) with stochastic volatility using post- WWII U.S. data to study the effects of uncertainty shocks on inflation. We find the response of inflation to be statistically insignificant until mid-to-late 1990s and negative thereafter. Our findings suggest that uncertainty shocks do not propagate like aggregate supply shocks and look like aggregate demand shocks since late 1990s.
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