Peter Tulip

The August SMP projected the cash rate to rise to 3% by end-2022, then decline by end-2024. This path is too low. The RBA expects it will deliver underlying inflation above the target range and unemployment below the NAIRU throughout the forecast horizon. A higher path of interest rates would move both these variables closer to their targets, so is unambiguously preferable. Moreover, I am sceptical of forecasts that inflation will quickly return to target while U<NAIRU.

Outcome date: 
Tuesday 06 September 2022
Current rate: 
12 months: 
6 months: 
3 Years: 

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