- Hou C, Nguyen BH, April 2018, Understanding the US natural gas market: A Markov switching VAR approach paper no. 14/2018.
- Bjornland HC, Larsen VH, Maih J, December 2017, Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability paper no. 79/2017.
- Zhu B, November 2017, Forecasting the real price of oil under alternative specifications of constant and time-varying volatility paper no. 71/2017.
The implications of demand for resources by emerging market economies and understanding the special features of commodity economies are currently issues for policy makers and investors. Emerging markets in particular are an important driver of the most recent commodity price cycle. This program seeks to understand commodity cycles and their financial market and macroeconomic effects, as well as the interactions between the three from both an emerging and developed country perspective.
The program focuses on:
- Understanding trends and cycles in commodity markets
- Currency, equity and commodity market linkages
- Global business cycle linkages and the role of emerging markets
- Oil price shocks and their transmission through the macroeconomy
- Food price shocks and their passthrough to the macroeconomy and poverty implications
- Policy responses to relative price movements
- The macroeconomics of sovereign wealth funds