- Raghavan M, March 2019, An analysis of the global oil market using SVARMA models paper no. 25/2019.
- Nguyen BH, Okimoto T, Tran TD, February 2019, Uncertainty and sign-dependent effects of oil market shocks paper no. 10/2019.
- Chudik A, Pesaran MH, Mohaddes K, January 2019, Identifying global and national output and fiscal policy shocks using a GVAR paper no. 06/2019.
The implications of demand for resources by emerging market economies and understanding the special features of commodity economies are currently issues for policy makers and investors. Emerging markets in particular are an important driver of the most recent commodity price cycle. This program seeks to understand commodity cycles and their financial market and macroeconomic effects, as well as the interactions between the three from both an emerging and developed country perspective.
The program focuses on:
- Understanding trends and cycles in commodity markets
- Currency, equity and commodity market linkages
- Global business cycle linkages and the role of emerging markets
- Oil price shocks and their transmission through the macroeconomy
- Food price shocks and their passthrough to the macroeconomy and poverty implications
- Policy responses to relative price movements
- The macroeconomics of sovereign wealth funds