- Kwas M, Paccagnini A, Rubaszek M, May 2020, Common factors and the dynamics of cereal prices. A forecasting perspective paper no. 47/2020.
- Cross JL, Nguyen BH, Tran TD, April 2020, The role of precautionary and speculative demand in the global market for crude oil paper no. 34/2020.
- Gao S, Hou C, Nguyen BH, March 2020, Forecasting natural gas prices using highly flexible time-varying parameter models paper no. 30/2020.
The implications of demand for resources by emerging market economies and understanding the special features of commodity economies are currently issues for policy makers and investors. Emerging markets in particular are an important driver of the most recent commodity price cycle. This program seeks to understand commodity cycles and their financial market and macroeconomic effects, as well as the interactions between the three from both an emerging and developed country perspective.
The program focuses on:
- Understanding trends and cycles in commodity markets
- Currency, equity and commodity market linkages
- Global business cycle linkages and the role of emerging markets
- Oil price shocks and their transmission through the macroeconomy
- Food price shocks and their passthrough to the macroeconomy and poverty implications
- Policy responses to relative price movements
- The macroeconomics of sovereign wealth funds