With inflation having been below the RBA’s target range for almost 6 years and having now only just reached into the range, the RBA should reject pressure to raise the cash rate too soon. The US Federal funds rate will have to start rising this year given the excessive fiscal and monetary policy accommodation in place there, and this will tighten financial conditions even in Australia. But the RBA needn’t match the Fed, and can afford to allow some weakening in the currency. Assuming the unwinding of health and supply chain shocks by 2023, the time to think about normalising the cash rate is in 2023.