As I indicated in mid-2018, 2019 is likely to be when the global business cycle is well past its peak. The probability that the US will enter a recession by the end of 2019 has recently become much higher. China’s growth has already slowed significantly, as has Europe’s and Japan’s. In Australia, inflation remains below 2%. Credit markets are now too tight, as a result of APRA controls that remained for too long, and because of banks’ (over)reaction to the Royal Commission. An election looms in 2019, which may lead to an even weaker investment climate. All of this means 2019 into 2020 will be a difficult period, and so the RBA will need to maintain the low cash rate, and be prepared to cut if necessary.