Six years after the onset of a great recession, the United States and the European Union face continued headwinds, and their challenges reverberate throughout the global economy to affect the outlook in major emerging economies. A number of policy and political uncertainties confound efforts to project global growth over the next decade. For example, the United States Federal Reserve announced a ‘tapering’ of some of its quantitative easing (QE) policies contingent on positive economic indicators, and the timing and effects of the unwinding of unconventional monetary policy are unclear. The US federal budget deficit, while moderated for now, is projected to return to unsustainable growth, and both the debt and the policies to address it can have important economic consequences. At the same time, Europe is facing serious macroeconomic imbalances and intractable political challenges to reforms. Many countries face mountains of government debt which, in a world of rising global interest rates, will generate major economic and political pressures.

This two-day workshop will bring together leading scholars on the economics and politics of key regions with an eye to weaving together a consistent view of the likely global economic outlook over the coming decade. It will explore regional dimensions of the global economic outlook, linkages between them, and the implications for global economic modelling scenarios. The first half day will focus on economic and political issues in the United States, and the second will explore analogous issues in Europe. The second morning will explore the outlook for Asia, emerging economies, linkages between major economies, and the overall global economic landscape for the coming decade. In light of the discussion in the earlier sessions, the final afternoon session will analyse and refine illustrative global modelling scenarios developed by Rio Tinto.